Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Jackson, KY

955 
WWUS53 KJKL 120003
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
803 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

KYC071-115-153-159-195-120015-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-110712T0015Z/
JOHNSON KY-MARTIN KY-MAGOFFIN KY-FLOYD KY-PIKE KY-
803 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
PIKE...NORTHERN FLOYD...EASTERN MAGOFFIN...MARTIN AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 800 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CORN FORK HOLLOW...OR NEAR
PRESTONSBURG...MOVING SOUTH AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WALDO...BEAVER JUNCTION...ALLEN...ALLEN CITY...ORCHARD...BAMMER...
  PYRAMID...GUNLOCK...HIPPO AND MID.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 8233 3750 8295 3777 8308 3791 8271
      3789 8262 3791 8261 3795 8259 3797 8254
      3787 8242 3782 8240 3778 8233 3777 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 348DEG 45KT 3765 8267
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

GEOGERIAN

329 
WWUS53 KJKL 120018
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
818 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

KYC071-115-153-159-195-120028-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0245.000000T0000Z-110712T0015Z/
JOHNSON KY-MARTIN KY-MAGOFFIN KY-FLOYD KY-PIKE KY-
818 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PIKE...NORTHERN
FLOYD...EASTERN MAGOFFIN...MARTIN AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3774 8233 3750 8295 3777 8308 3791 8271
      3789 8262 3791 8261 3795 8259 3797 8254
      3787 8242 3782 8240 3778 8233 3777 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 348DEG 45KT 3765 8267

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
654 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

GRADUALLY WEAKENING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BRUSH FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO
SLIGHT POP TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY OUTFLOW POTENTIAL.

THE MOST ROBUST THUNDERSTORM IS HANGING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
COMPLEX...CURRENTLY HAMMERING CARTER COUNTY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
PARTICULAR STORM AS IT APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO BUILD MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH...WHERE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

WE HAVE A HOT...MUGGY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AN MCV TRACKING THRU
THE NRN HALF OF OHIO. THIS MCV SHOULD MISS ERN KY BUT OUTFLOW FROM
THE PASSAGE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CAPPING FROM THE SFC HIGH HAS HELD
CONVECTION IN CHECK TO THIS POINT. EXPECTING THE TROF TO DROP THRU THE
AREA LATE TUE NITE AND EARLY WED. THIS SHOULD PROMPT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE CAP IS ERODED
AND LOW LEVEL LIFT IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WIL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FOR THIS SHORT TERM FCST AS WE HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE
AND WILL EXTEND THAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TUE. OVERNIGHT HEAT INDEX
WILL NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 70S TONIGHT AND WILL SHOOT UP TO THE LOW
100S TUE AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF WILL FINALLY HOLD THE
TEMPS IN CHECK WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN PLACE WED AFTERNOON AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BOTH ADVERTISING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY BOTH MODELS TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WEEKEND...PAVING THE WAY FOR SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS ON NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE. THE
INHERITED FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE REGARDING THIS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE TIMING AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN MORE DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION FORMATION EACH DAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TRYING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. THAT BEING SAID...WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST...GOING WITH LOWER PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DIURNAL PEAKS IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN 15 AND 22Z EACH
DAY...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES AND PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS...THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ADVERTISING
NEARLY AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG DURING THE DAY TIME PERIODS...AND LIFTED INDICES
AROUND MINUS 3...WHICH IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL DATA WAS SUGGESTING. ALL IN ALL THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LACK OF A PERSISTENT STRONG
SURFACE TRIGGER AND COOL DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR DAYS 4-7...GOING WITH GENERALLY HIGHER
CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES AND
DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS MORE OF THE SAME. ADJUSTED THE DAY TIME
HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER HCP GUIDANCE...STAYING BELOW THE WARMER
MEXMOS NUMBERS. THE MEX TEMPERATURES DID LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE
THAN THEY HAVE IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WEEKS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE
WILL BE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES DURING MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...DECIDE TO STAY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE  SAME RANGE EACH DAY...THE HEAT WILL REMAIN
OPPRESSIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

HAVE INSERTED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OF THE
INSTABILITY...SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE VCTS IN THE
FORECAST IS TO COVER ANYTHING THAT MIGHT BUILD FROM THE HEATING
TODAY. THESE STORMS WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FOR TUE MORNING. HAVE
NOT GONE AS LOW AS FIRST ESTIMATES WITH ONLY LOZ GOING BELOW LANDING
MINIMUMS THIS MORNING. TUE MORNING COULD SEE BOTH LOZ/SME BELOW
MINIMUMS BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY WILL LET FUTURE
FORECASTERS MAKE THAT DETERMINATION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

MESOSCALE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-122315-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
404 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 70S OVERNIGHT... GIVING LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT. REFER TO THE HEAT ADVISORY...
SDFNPWJKL...FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH VALUES
RISING INTO THE LOWER 100S IN THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BOTH DAYS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THESE STORMS MAY
ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER WITH
DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSING RUNNING FULL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DUSTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

KYZ104-112330-
ELLIOTT-
706 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTY THROUGH 730
PM EDT MONDAY EVENING...

   EASTERN ELLIOTT.

AT 706 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRUIN...OR 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF SANDY HOOK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GEOGERIAN