Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Jackson, KY

549 
WWUS53 KJKL 032036
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

KYC065-165-173-197-032100-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0240.000000T0000Z-110703T2100Z/
MONTGOMERY KY-MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-ESTILL KY-
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL ESTILL...WESTERN POWELL...EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MENIFEE AND
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WESTBEND...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINCHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEVEE...WESTBEND...CAMARGO...VIRDEN...SPOUT SPRINGS...POWELL
  VALLEY...WALTERSVILLE...CLAY CITY...VAUGHNS MILL...BEAN...
  JEFFERSONVILLE AND LUCKY STOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 8402 3805 8395 3799 8378 3777 8392
      3786 8404 3787 8403 3787 8402 3792 8401
      3794 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 299DEG 15KT 3791 8402
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

JACOBSON

125 
WWUS53 KJKL 032048
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

KYC165-032057-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0240.000000T0000Z-110703T2100Z/
MENIFEE KY-
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MENIFEE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 3791 8383 3777 8392 3786 8404 3787 8403
      3787 8402 3792 8401 3794 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 299DEG 15KT 3789 8397

$$

KYC065-173-197-032100-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0240.000000T0000Z-110703T2100Z/
MONTGOMERY KY-POWELL KY-ESTILL KY-
448 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL ESTILL...WESTERN POWELL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 446 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
VIRDEN...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF STANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  VIRDEN...SPOUT SPRINGS...POWELL VALLEY...WALTERSVILLE...CLAY CITY
  AND VAUGHNS MILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 8383 3777 8392 3786 8404 3787 8403
      3787 8402 3792 8401 3794 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 299DEG 15KT 3789 8397
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
JJ

483 
WWUS53 KJKL 032058
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

KYC065-173-197-032107-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0240.000000T0000Z-110703T2100Z/
MONTGOMERY KY-POWELL KY-ESTILL KY-
458 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
ESTILL...WESTERN POWELL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 500 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3791 8383 3777 8392 3786 8404 3787 8403
      3787 8402 3792 8401 3794 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 299DEG 15KT 3787 8392

$$

JACOBSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

A POORLY DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS HAVING RISEN TO
NEAR 70 TODAY AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...THERE IS AMPLE
INSTABILITY PRESENT AS MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 3500
CAPE...BUT SURFACE TEMPS JUST SHY OF CONVECTIVE TEMPS AT MID
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OCCURRING JUST N
AND W OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT FEATURE TO TRIGGER/FOCUS CONVECTION WERE
WEAK. THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AND WOULD
NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SURFACE TEMPS SO CLOSE TO
THE CONVECTIVE TEMP. SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT THE STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
YIELD SOME PULSE SEVERE ACTIVITY. HAVE CARRIED A 20 PERCENT POP THIS
EVENING. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAWN...AND HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE
THEN AS WELL.

ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE VERY SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM
THE WNW. THIS WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT...HAVE CONTINUED THE ENHANCED POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...WITH THE CHANCE LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE
INSTABILITY WANES.

MODELS ARE NOW LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH A CHANGE IN AIR MASS FOR TUESDAY
AND SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW...SO HAVE ADDED 20-30 PERCENT POPS. THIS IS
A MOS COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE LOWER METMOS THAN THE HIGHER
MAVMOS.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE 03/12Z GFS
WANTING TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA QUICKER THAN THE
ECMWF.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BRINGING A RENEWED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE AREA KEEPING THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL THEN
BANK ON THIS FRONT EITHER WASHING OUT OR SETTLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FORECAST DRY.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE CHANGED IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS INDICATE
SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND HANG A PIECE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER SEASONAL WITH LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL STAY UNDER THE WARM BIASED GFSX MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT...KEEPING HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

INCREASED HUMIDITY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH...COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING DURING THE DAY...WILL PROBABLY
FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY. FEATURES TO SET OFF CONVECTION
WILL BE WEAK...AND AS A RESULT THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST WITH SPECIFICITY BEYOND THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE
ACTIVITY TO BE PRESENT. ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION DIES OUT WITH SURFACE
STABILIZATION AND LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN OUT AND ALLOW FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
FOG DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...WITH TIME IT
WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO SPREAD BEYOND THE VALLEYS BY DAWN. LOCALIZED
VLIFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z AND 14Z WITH VFR RETURNING.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
428 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WELL AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GEOGERIAN