Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Jackson, KY

824 
WWUS53 KJKL 220112
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
912 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYC095-220145-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-110622T0145Z/
HARLAN KY-
912 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HARLAN COUNTY
UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 908 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAYS KNOB...OR NEAR HARLAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DRAPER...BAILEY CREEK...EVARTS AND DARKMONT AROUND 920 PM EDT.
  NOLANSBURG...LADEN...SHIELDS AND GANO AROUND 925 PM EDT.
  TOTZ...LEONARD...LOUELLEN AND ARTHUR AROUND 930 PM EDT.
  DIANE...HIRAM AND CREECH AROUND 935 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
DILLON...GEORGETOWN...SAND HILL AND BLAIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 8346 3674 8350 3677 8349 3701 8322
      3703 8318 3701 8313 3696 8315 3699 8302
      3702 8296 3697 8286 3689 8287 3686 8295
      3685 8306 3675 8314 3673 8327 3670 8337
      3667 8342 3667 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 222DEG 32KT 3683 8326
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.88IN

$$

GREIF

644 
WWUS53 KJKL 220124
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
924 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYC095-220145-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-110622T0145Z/
HARLAN KY-
924 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
HARLAN COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 921 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BAILEY CREEK...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HARLAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TOTZ...LOUELLEN...BLACK BOTTOM AND LEJUNIOR AROUND 930 PM EDT.
  DIANE...HIRAM...CREECH AND ROCK HOUSE AROUND 935 PM EDT.
  CHAD...SAND HILL...KINGDOM COME S.P. AND CUMBERLAND AROUND 940 PM
  EDT.
  LYNCH AROUND 945 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
GEORGETOWN...SAND HILL AND BLAIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 8345 3701 8322 3703 8318 3701 8313
      3699 8315 3696 8315 3699 8302 3702 8296
      3697 8286 3689 8287 3686 8296 3685 8306
      3682 8310 3682 8320 3680 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 222DEG 32KT 3691 8317
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

569 
WWUS53 KJKL 220146
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
946 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYC095-220157-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-110622T0145Z/
HARLAN KY-
946 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HARLAN COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3681 8345 3701 8322 3703 8318 3701 8313
      3699 8315 3696 8315 3699 8302 3702 8296
      3697 8286 3689 8287 3686 8296 3685 8306
      3682 8310 3682 8320 3680 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 222DEG 32KT 3691 8317

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRUDGES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE TROUBLE IS TIMING THESE WAVES
AS THEY WILL BE FORCED BY ILL DEFINED SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN A
RELATIVELY FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE SPAWNING
THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST
THIS EVENING PROBABLY ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AND WILL ADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL THEN PIVOT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS OCCURS IN TANDEM WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT EDGING THROUGH THE AREA SO EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE SOME OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN
PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
SHORTWAVES WILL ZIP BY UNDERNEATH THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM EITHER PERIOD.

WE WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SPC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PULSE TYPE STORMS WILL BE THE CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A
THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM...AND NEGATIVE TILT TO THE
TROUGH. THE QUESTION WILL BE IN HOW MUCH WE CAN DESTABILIZE AS TOO
MUCH ONGOING SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIMIT OUR
ABILITY TO DESTABILZE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITH PWATS APPROACHING
2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN. BEHIND THE FRONT...PWATS CRASH BUT THE DRIER MID
LEVEL AIRMASS...LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND STRONG WIND FIELD WILL
MEAN A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING.

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP/CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP OUR HIGHS IN THE 80S...WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES FOR THE
EXTENDED. THE ECMWF BEGINS FRI MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW A BIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS BUT THE STATIONARY BNDRY IS GENERALLY
LOCATED EAST/WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS BNDRY IS NOT AS
ACTIVE WITH THE ECMWF AS THE GFS BUT THIS IS A NORMAL BIAS FOR THE
GFS. HAVE OPTED TO BLEND THE PCPN COVERAGE AND VALUES BETWEEN THE
TWO WHICH ALSO BLENDS FAIRLY WELL WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS FOR MY
NEIGHBORS. LOW PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE OKLA PANHANDLE BY SAT
MORNING WHICH STARTS ANOTHER IN THE PAST SERIES OF SLOW MOVING WARM
FRONTS ACROSS ERN KY. BY SAT AFTERNOON THE GULF IS WIDE OPEN WHICH
BLANKETS ALMOST THE ENTIRE SE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH PCPN.
EXPECT ANY SHRA/TSRA TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND WITH THE LIKELY COPIOUS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE... COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY VARY DIURNALLY WITH THE HEAVIEST PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO YIELD AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN PCPN WILL
LIKELY BE PRESENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE NEARLY CONSTANT AND ONLY RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ON FRI TO THE MID
80S BY TUE. LOW TEMPS WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 60S
ON SAT TO THE UPPER 60S BY TUE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

TSTMS CONTINUE TO ROLL THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING TEMPORARY
REDUCTION TO IFR VSBYS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS.
SQUALL LINE FORMING NEAR LOZ AT ISSUANCE WOULD REACH JKL AROUND 0030Z
AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THIS. MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND 04Z HOWEVER...SCT TSTMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT DUE TO THE SCT NATURE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
WITH VCTS/CB GROUPS OVERNIGHT. NEXT ISSUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE FOG AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE
06Z ISSUANCE TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THIS. FOR WEDNESDAY...TSTMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH AGAIN...THEY WILL BE SCT IN
NATURE. AGAIN...CONTINUED TO HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL WITH A GENERIC
VCTS/CB AND WILL AMD AS NECESSARY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1056 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-221800-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1056 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
COULD BECOME SEVERE AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OR ANY INCIDENTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY.

JP/ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
730 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND GST     LONDON                  37.13N 84.08W
06/21/2011  M58 MPH          LAUREL             KY   ASOS

            50 KNOT GUST REPORTED AT THE LONDON ASOS.

&&

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
731 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     TSTM WND GST     LONDON                  37.13N 84.08W
06/21/2011  M58.00 MPH       LAUREL             KY   ASOS

            50 KNOT GUST REPORTED AT THE LONDON ASOS.

&&

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE PINE KNOT         36.63N 84.34W
06/21/2011                   MCCREARY           KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES BLOWN DOWN WITH AN ESTIMATED WIND GUST BETWEEN 40
            AND 45 MPH.

&&

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
735 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE STRUNK            36.62N 84.40W
06/21/2011                   MCCREARY           KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            4 TO 5 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS BROKEN.

&&

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ058-069-111-114-220030-
ESTILL-LEE-JACKSON-OWSLEY-
750 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 830 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   SOUTHERN ESTILL...
   LEE...
   EASTERN JACKSON AND
   NORTHWESTERN OWSLEY.

AT 750 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR
MACEDONIA...OR NEAR MCKEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...LAKES AROUND
755 PM EDT...OLD ORCHARD AROUND 800 PM EDT...BANFORD AROUND 805 PM
EDT...WILLOW SHOALS AROUND 810 PM EDT...AND PINNACLE AROUND 815 PM
EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
835 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

KYZ050-051-058>060-106>117-220115-
BATH-MONTGOMERY-MENIFEE-POWELL-ESTILL-JOHNSON-MORGAN-MAGOFFIN-WOLFE-
FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-OWSLEY-KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
835 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 915 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING...

   SOUTH CENTRAL BATH...
   EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
   SOUTHERN MORGAN...
   MENIFEE...
   SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
   EASTERN POWELL...
   MAGOFFIN...
   WOLFE...
   EXTREME EAST CENTRAL ESTILL...
   NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...
   LEE...
   BREATHITT...
   EASTERN OWSLEY...
   WESTERN KNOTT...
   NORTHERN PERRY...
   EASTERN CLAY AND
   NORTHERN LESLIE.

AT 836 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED NEAR NOCTOR...OR NEAR JACKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...BAYS AROUND 845
PM EDT...EUGENE AROUND 850 PM EDT...GULLETT AROUND 855 PM
EDT...GIFFORD AROUND 900 PM EDT...AND CYRUS AROUND 905 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF