Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Jackson, KY

052 
WWUS53 KJKL 112158
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
558 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYC119-112208-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-110611T2215Z/
KNOTT KY-
558 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3738 8224 3718 8263 3723 8270 3728 8267
      3734 8265 3744 8264 3757 8256 3760 8238
      3760 8214 3759 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 283DEG 16KT 3751 8239 3740 8244
          3727 8251 3720 8263

$$

KYC071-133-195-112215-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-110611T2215Z/
FLOYD KY-PIKE KY-LETCHER KY-
558 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
LETCHER...PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 556 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM RACCOON TO GARDEN VILLAGE TO DORTON TO DUNHAM...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOOKOUT...ROCKHOUSE...MARROWBONE...KIMPER...FISHTRAP LAKE...
  PHYLLIS...BELCHER...HUDDY...BIGGS...MOUTHCARD...FEDSCREEK...
  MCANDREWS...COLEMAN AND BOARD TREE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 8224 3718 8263 3723 8270 3728 8267
      3734 8265 3744 8264 3757 8256 3760 8238
      3760 8214 3759 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 283DEG 16KT 3751 8239 3740 8244
          3727 8251 3720 8263
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.88IN

$$

PELTON

200 
WWUS53 KJKL 112215
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
615 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYC071-133-195-112225-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-110611T2215Z/
FLOYD KY-PIKE KY-LETCHER KY-
615 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LETCHER...PIKE
AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3738 8224 3718 8263 3723 8270 3728 8267
      3734 8265 3744 8264 3757 8256 3760 8238
      3760 8214 3759 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 283DEG 16KT 3749 8230 3738 8235
          3725 8242 3718 8254

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

FOCUS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND A RATHER SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
LOWER/ERN GREAT LAKES AND CURRENTLY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL IL
AND SERN MO BACK INTO OK AND TX. A WEAK TROF AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SPAWNED CONVECTION OVER SRN IL/WRN KY THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS SENT
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL KY THAT IN TURN HAS SPARKED NEW
CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL KY. 18Z LAPS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS OVER ERN KY...THANKS TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S SO FAR...WITH MODERATE SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND DECENT
LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LESS DISCERNIBLE OUTFLOWS AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
THE PRIMARY TRIGGERS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE BUILDING INSTABILITY.
THE MAIN THREATS AGAIN LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS COUPLED WITH
HAIL...THOUGH WITH FCST STORM MOTIONS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...ANY
SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINER MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN OR SMALL STREAM
PROBLEMS. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS.

MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES
SOMEWHAT. CURRENT CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS BRINGS THE
FRONT INTO ERN KY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A
RELATIVE MINIMUM. FURTHERMORE...DEEP MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING
AND THIS SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INGREDIENTS
AVAILABLE OVERALL TO KEEP LIKELY POPS WARRANTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COMMONWEALTH AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING DOWN INTO THE REGION. HAVE HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS LONGEST
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE UPSLOPING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ANY POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
THINNING OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

QUIETER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN IN EARNEST ON MONDAY AS AN EXPANSIVE
RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER SRN U.S. AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
WHICH WERE ALMOST IDENTICAL ON HIGHS AND LOWS THRU THE PERIOD. THIS
SUPPORTED THE INHERITED FCST THINKING THAT A GENERAL COOLING TREND IS
ON TAP...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY RIGHT AROUND THE 80 DEGREE
MARK AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING A BIT COOLER THAN THE MID
60S EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS STILL AGREE ON THE PESKY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TRANSITIONING TO A SURFACE WARM
FRONT TO THE WEST. A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE
LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND WHILE THE JKL CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH FORCING MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES POPPING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SO LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCES THERE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PUSHES EAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. A RATHER RIGOROUS NEG
TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE AND SHOULD PUT A DENT IN OUR RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND LACK OF RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT THIS FEATURE HAS
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON STRONG
WORDING FOR NOW AS TIMING IS A CONCERN. THERE IS SOME WEIGHT TO THIS
AS THE EURO HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS AND THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS. THEREFORE...DID GO UP TO MID
CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT PERHAPS LIKELYS MAY BE
WARRANTED IN THE NEXT UPDATE. DROPPED TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE VA
BORDER ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT TRIES TO PUSH OUT OF THE CWA.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDING TO
MOS TRENDS. THE MEXMOS DID SEEM A BIT TOO COOL NOW BUT
OVERALL...TEMPS ARE GOOD TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING
THE PERIOD...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRENGTH
OF ENSUING STORMS HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHEN INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
WILL ALSO BE LIMITED. HAVE USED VCTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
WITH A TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT JKL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THEIR CROSS OVER. HAVE
STAYED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD HERE FOR NOW WITH MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AROUND LOZ TOWARDS DAWN.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY TAKE CARE OF ANY FOG ISSUES THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH BKN TO OVC CIGS LINGERING AROUND THE M/VFR RANGE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-122230-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
319 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INCIDENTS OF SEVERE WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON...OR THEIR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
437 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             POMEROYTON              37.87N 83.52W
06/11/2011  E1.00 INCH       MENIFEE            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
439 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYZ050-058>060-108-112115-
MONTGOMERY-MENIFEE-POWELL-ESTILL-WOLFE-
439 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 515 PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
   SOUTHERN MENIFEE...
   POWELL...
   NORTHWESTERN WOLFE AND
   EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL ESTILL.

AT 439 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR
STANTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...CAT CREEK
AROUND 445 PM EDT...BOWEN AROUND 450 PM EDT...LOMBARD AROUND 455 PM
EDT...FAGAN AROUND 500 PM EDT...HAYSTACK AROUND 505 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PEA SIZED HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

PELTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
453 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYZ110-112-113-115-112130-
FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-
453 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 530
PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTH CENTRAL FLOYD...
   SOUTHEASTERN BREATHITT...
   KNOTT AND
   NORTHEASTERN PERRY.

AT 453 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEARVILLE...OR
NEAR HINDMAN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...TINA AROUND 500
PM EDT...HINDMAN AROUND 505 PM EDT...LEBURN AROUND 510 PM EDT...
GARNER AROUND 515 PM EDT...MALLIE AROUND 520 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
454 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYZ051-052-104-106-112130-
ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
454 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 530
PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHERN ROWAN...
   EAST CENTRAL BATH...
   WESTERN ELLIOTT AND
   NORTH CENTRAL MORGAN.

AT 454 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COGSWELL...OR
6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOREHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...BRANDY AROUND
500 PM EDT...CLEARFIELD AROUND 505 PM EDT...LICK FORK AROUND 510 PM
EDT...PELFREY AROUND 515 PM EDT...CRANEY AROUND 520 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

PELTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
502 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYZ110-120-112145-
FLOYD-PIKE-
502 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 545
PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   EAST CENTRAL FLOYD AND
   NORTHWESTERN PIKE.

AT 502 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GULNARE...OR 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF PIKEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...PIKEVILLE
AROUND 510 PM EDT...ZEBULON AROUND 515 PM EDT...PISO AROUND 520 PM
EDT...META AROUND 525 PM EDT...VARNEY AROUND 530 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

PELTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
515 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYZ051-052-060-104-106-112200-
ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-MENIFEE-MORGAN-
515 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 600
PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING...

   SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN...
   EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BATH...
   SOUTHWESTERN ELLIOTT...
   NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND
   NORTHEASTERN MENIFEE.

AT 515 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BANGOR...OR 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF FRENCHBURG...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...BANGOR AROUND
520 PM EDT...LICK FORK AROUND 525 PM EDT...PARAGON AROUND 530 PM
EDT...CRANEY AROUND 540 PM EDT...LEISURE AROUND 545 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

PELTON