Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Jackson, KY

428 
WWUS53 KJKL 240059
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
859 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

KYC025-051-131-189-193-240130-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-110524T0130Z/
BREATHITT KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-CLAY KY-LESLIE KY-
859 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LESLIE...EAST CENTRAL CLAY...NORTHERN PERRY...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
OWSLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL BREATHITT COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 852 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PANCO...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF HYDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HAZARD...SHOAL...KALIOPI...BUCKHORN...BUCKHORN LAKE S.P....
  DRYHILL...CONFLUENCE...BEECH...GAYS CREEK...TOULOUSE...MOSLEY
  BEND...WOOTON...BUSH BRANCH...ALTRO...KRYPTON...CHAVIES...
  BARWICK...AVAWAM...WOLF COAL AND FREW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 8352 3726 8359 3751 8332 3717 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 245DEG 26KT 3727 8346
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

HAL

217 
WWUS53 KJKL 240104
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
904 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

KYC051-189-240113-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-110524T0130Z/
OWSLEY KY-CLAY KY-
904 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CLAY AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3716 8345 3725 8351 3731 8354 3751 8332
      3717 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 245DEG 26KT 3728 8343

$$

KYC025-131-193-240130-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-110524T0130Z/
BREATHITT KY-PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-
904 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
LESLIE...NORTHERN PERRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL BREATHITT COUNTIES UNTIL
930 PM EDT...

AT 9 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SAUL...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HYDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HAZARD...DRYHILL...CONFLUENCE...BEECH...GAYS CREEK...TOULOUSE...
  MOSLEY BEND...WOOTON...BUSH BRANCH...ALTRO...KRYPTON...CHAVIES...
  BARWICK...AVAWAM...WOLF COAL...FREW...WHICK...SALDEE...LAMONT AND
  COPLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 8345 3725 8351 3731 8354 3751 8332
      3717 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 245DEG 26KT 3728 8343
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

411 
WWUS53 KJKL 240128
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
928 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

KYC025-131-193-240138-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0156.000000T0000Z-110524T0130Z/
BREATHITT KY-PERRY KY-LESLIE KY-
928 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN LESLIE...NORTHERN
PERRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL BREATHITT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM
EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3716 8345 3725 8351 3731 8354 3751 8332
      3717 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 245DEG 26KT 3736 8322

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
846 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

UPDATED THE ZFP TO INCLUDE SVR TSTM WATCH FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE LINE WHICH PROMPTED THE WATHC IS SHOWING AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SVR STORMS HAVE POPPED SOUTH OF THE
WATCH AREA.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THIS STRETCHED OUT TO THE WEST OF KENTUCKY.
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR INTO THE
REGION MOISTENING AND WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY GOT OFF TO A SLOW
START DUE TO THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AREA FROM
THE DYING MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
NOW MOSTLY CLEARED OFF AND THE INSTABILITY IS BUILDING...THOUGH IT
REMAINS AT A RELATIVE MIN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. PROBABLY OF GREATER
PORTEND ARE THE STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. BECAUSE OF THE LAG IN THE DIURNAL HEATING
TODAY...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA...THOUGH LOW 80S ARE NOTED IN PLACES THAT HAVE MANAGED TO
SEE MORE SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE...DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THEY
LIFT A COMPACT TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...NORTH OF THE
RELATIVELY FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CARRY WITH IT A DECENT SHORT WAVE LATER TONIGHT...THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY DAWN TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL
ALSO SERVE TO MAINTAIN THE RATHER FLAT FLOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW CHURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE NIGHT WITH DOWNSTREAM
WEAK RIDGING PASSING OVER EAST KENTUCKY. WITH THE CLOSE AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS...GEM EXCLUDED...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION
USING THE NAM12 AND 00Z ECMWF FOR WEATHER DETAILS. ALSO LEANED TOWARD
THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECASTING OF CONVECTION AND
TIMING THIS EVENING.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE ALL ABOUT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. THE GRIDS WERE
DRAWN WITH THIS LATTER ACTIVITY IN MIND AND SEVERAL ROUNDS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHEN THE CONVECTION IS NOT AROUND PATCHY FOG CAN
BE EXPECTED...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. THE WRF SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING AND ONLY SLOWLY
EDGE OUT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME. GIVEN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SOME OTHER MODEL SUPPORT HAVE FOLLOWED A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN THE
GRIDS. THIS WOULD ENTAIL A NON-TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE TO THE
CONVECTION AS THE POPS WILL BE FALLING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE AS WELL DUE TO THE RISING
HEIGHTS AND INBOUND RIDGING COMING IN AT THE MID LEVELS. EXPECT THE
EBB AND FLOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT...AND
LOSS OF INSTABILITY WITH NIGHTFALL TO RESULT IN LOWER POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS.

FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ADJMET AND INHERITED GRIDS FOR TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...BUT
JUST ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW WILL
ROTATE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS RIDGING WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION. HOWEVER...THIS LOW WILL OPEN UP
INTO A WAVE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO MAGNIFY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
RE-ENFORCING ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...DYS5-6
GENERAL TIMING OF FEATURES IS VERY SIMILAR. HOWEVER...THE GFS WITH
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PUSHES THIS SECOND WAVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY THE WEEKEND...DYS6-7. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE
SLOWER AND MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SECOND WAVE. THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED. THE QUESTION REMAINS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND JUST HOW THE
EASTERN TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY
WAVE. OVERALL RUN TO RUN TRENDS HOWEVER...ARE FOR A SLOWER AND MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH RESPECT TO THE SECOND SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO DYS3-5 WITH SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SOLUTIONS. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE INHERITED GRIDS...HPC GUIDANCE
AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...ALONG WITH MINOR TERRAIN DRIVEN
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MINIMUMS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...COULD NOT IGNORE OVERALL SLOWER AND MORE
NORTHERLY TREND TO SECOND SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY THIS IS WHERE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...BASICALLY TO TREND
HIGHER ON TEMPS AND LOWER ON POPS. FOR THE POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
DRYER SIDE OF MEX AND HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR UNCERTAINTY BEING THE CONCERN. THUNDERSTORMS
IN NORTH CENTRAL KY SHORTLY BEFORE TAF ISSUANCE POSE THE BIGGEST
THREAT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND KJKL
NORTH THIS EVENING BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z...WITH STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE. ONCE THESE PASS...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW WELL THE OTHER STORMS
PRESENT OVER WEST KY AND WEST TN EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ACTUAL ACTIVITY IN
WEST KY AND WEST TN PUTS IT IN OUR SW COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. THE NAM
AND HRRR SUGGEST ACTIVITY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUE MORNING IN THAT
AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE OH RIVER. AT
THIS POINT WILL JUST INCLUDE VCTS IN TAFS AT KSME AND KLOZ FROM
03-06Z AND AGAIN FROM 11Z ON. FURTHER NORTH...INCLUDING KJKL...HAVE
USED A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THREAT OVERNIGHT AND ON TUE MORNING...WITH
VCTS USED AGAIN ON TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-104-106.

&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF/HAL
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-242245-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
340 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE STORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AS WELL AS
STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

KYZ044-240045-
FLEMING-
750 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FLEMING COUNTY BETWEEN
8 PM AND 845 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING...

AT 745 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
18 MILES NORTH OF CYNTHIANA TO 8 MILES WEST OF CYNTHIANA TO 7 MILES
WEST OF LAWRENCEBURG...MOVING EAST AROUND 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...COWAN AROUND
820 PM EDT...NEPTON AROUND 825 PM EDT...MOUNT CARMEL AROUND 835 PM
EDT...PECKS RIDGE AROUND 840 PM EDT...TILTON AROUND 845 PM EDT...

PEOPLE SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND
AN INCH IN AN HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL IN FLEMING COUNTY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
815 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

KYZ114>117-240100-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
815 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS THROUGH
9 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING...

   SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY...
   WEST CENTRAL PERRY...
   NORTHERN CLAY AND
   NORTHWESTERN LESLIE.

AT 814 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR URBAN...OR
NEAR MANCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MILL POND
AROUND 820 PM EDT...WILD CAT AROUND 825 PM EDT...ONEIDA AROUND 830 PM
EDT...NEWFOUND AROUND 835 PM EDT...MISTLETOE AROUND 840 PM EDT...

PEOPLE SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

HAL