Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Jackson, KY

153 
WWUS53 KJKL 231858
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYC013-095-231915-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110323T1915Z/
HARLAN KY-BELL KY-
258 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
BELL AND SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 254 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PATHFORK...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARLAN...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LIGGETT...STANFILL...HENSLEY STORE...BARDO...MARY ALICE...PANSY...
  MARTINS FORK...YANCEY...PEEPACE STORE...THREE POINT...MARTINS FORK
  LAKE...SMITH...FLAGLER...CRUMMIES AND CRANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8358 3681 8357 3677 8313 3676 8313
      3674 8315 3673 8322 3673 8327 3671 8336
      3667 8342 3666 8354 3665 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 278DEG 51KT 3672 8340
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

GEOGERIAN

717 
WWUS53 KJKL 231902
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
302 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYC013-231911-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110323T1915Z/
BELL KY-
302 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BELL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3673 8327 3672 8330 3671 8336 3667 8342
      3680 8346 3677 8313 3676 8313 3674 8315
      3673 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 278DEG 51KT 3670 8335

$$

KYC095-231915-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110323T1915Z/
HARLAN KY-
302 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
HARLAN COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ALVA...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARLAN...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YANCEY...PEEPACE STORE...THREE POINT...MARTINS FORK LAKE...SMITH...
  FLAGLER...CRUMMIES AND CRANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3673 8327 3672 8330 3671 8336 3667 8342
      3680 8346 3677 8313 3676 8313 3674 8315
      3673 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 278DEG 51KT 3670 8335
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

DUSTY

761 
WWUS53 KJKL 231919
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYC095-231927-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-110323T1915Z/
HARLAN KY-
319 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HARLAN COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3673 8327 3672 8330 3671 8336 3667 8342
      3680 8346 3677 8313 3676 8313 3674 8315
      3673 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 278DEG 51KT 3669 8333

$$

DUSTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
249 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FIRED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...EXTENDING FROM
ROUGHLY NORTH WEBSTER IN INDIANA SOUTHWEST TO LITTLE ROCK AR. SEVERAL
LINE SEGMENTS...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER THE THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9 PM. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN LATE TONIGHT...AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR GETS INTO THE
AREA AND HOW LONG SHOWERS LINGER...WE COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE FORECAST WENT
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
INHERITED TEMPS...MORE TO CAPTURE THE TRENDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE.
EXPECT FOR THE OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
SHOULD HELP RAISE AFTERNOON TEMPS...EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED

THERE IS OVERALL BASIC AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT THE WEATHER
PATTERN FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ACTIVE. CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL BE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS AND THIS INCREASES UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL MOVE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT AND BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES
OR TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG FRONT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
IS UNCERTAIN...AND THUS THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL THEN GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
EAST. THERE IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AS THE
00Z ECMWF POINTS TOWARDS THIS AS THE MOST POTENT OF THE SYSTEMS TO
AFFECT US OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE 12Z GFS IS DOWNPLAYING THIS.
IN EITHER CASE WILL NEED TO CARRY CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN NORTHEAST AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES TO THE AREA UNTIL STORMS MOVE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
AREA AFTER 06Z. AFTER 06Z...IFR TO MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...MACZKO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-242045-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
138 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...TORNADO WATCH 55 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALSO...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
212 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYZ085>088-231845-
WHITLEY-KNOX-HARLAN-BELL-
212 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 245
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTH CENTRAL KNOX...
   SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN...
   EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY AND
   BELL.

AT 212 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRAKES...OR 12
MILES WEST OF MIDDLESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...MELDRUM AROUND
220 PM EDT...HUTCH AROUND 225 PM EDT...CUBAGE AROUND 230 PM EDT...
HENSLEY STORE AROUND 235 PM EDT...PEEPACE STORE AROUND 240 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
221 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

KYZ085>088-231845-
WHITLEY-KNOX-HARLAN-BELL-
221 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 245
PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHERN KNOX...
   EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN...
   CENTRAL WHITLEY AND
   NORTHERN BELL.

AT 222 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...GAUSDALE AROUND
230 PM EDT...WARREN AROUND 235 PM EDT...STRAIGHT CREEK AROUND 240 PM
EDT...ARJAY AROUND 245 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

GEOGERIAN