River Flood Advisory 4, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHCENTRAL KY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.
THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS IS NOT EXITING THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW TODAY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
DAYTIME HIGHS OCCURRING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THEN TEMPS
FALLING OFF TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS
AND LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT
850 MB. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RAGES
BELOW 850 MB AND LIKELY SOME UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY SHOWERS. THE CONCERN
REMAINS THAT SOME OF THE STRONG MOMENTUM COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40
MPH OR SO OR IN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE COULD OCCUR. WE
OPTED TO EXTEND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER
UNTIL WINDS ALOFT SLACKEN ABOUT 18Z AND ALSO BE BETTER MATCH WIND
ADVISORIES FROM SURROUNDING WFOS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO
ICE IN THE CLOUDS PER MODEL DATA...WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIP LIKELY
FALLING AS JUST LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN MOST CASES. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
OBS OF SOME LIGHT SNOW IN IL AND IN AND POSSIBLE SATURATION TO ABOUT
-8C LEAD US TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SNOW IN WITH THIS AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH WARM GROUND...TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...AND VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD
LEAD TO THINNING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS JUST IN TIME FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL LINGER LEADS ME TO NOT DROP OFF MIN T WELL INTO THE 20S
FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN FACT...PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AT
LEAST IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WITH THE WET GROUND IN PLACE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR SAT AND TEMPS
RISING ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD HELP HOLD PRECIP
FROM A SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH AND IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AT BAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED

THE FORECAST MODELS WERE OUT OF SYNCH WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF
A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
MODELS ALL BEING SLOWER OR FASTER THAN ONE ANOTHER...AND WITH
DIFFERENT ORIENTATIONS OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...MADE
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE DAYS 3-7 OF THE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY
CHANGE MADE WAS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ABOARD...BASED ON THE INCREASED POPS IN THE
LATEST HPC AND MEXMOS GUIDANCE. MADE CORRESPONDING CHANGES TO THE
QPF AND WEATHER GRIDS. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES...AND SKY COVER...THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS
IN GOOD SHAPE ALREADY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY STRONG AND
WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE QUESTION
WILL REMAIN EXACTLY WHEN WILL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST THEN LOOKS DRY FROM THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
PERHAPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS BREWING OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BASIN
AND HAS SPAWNED A WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS ARE FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH LOWER CIGS AND VIS. TO THE SOUTH...THE PCPN IS
TAPERING OFF WHILE CIGS RISE AND VIS IMPROVES. A TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN LOW AND ITS STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS RESPITE FROM
THE POORER AVN CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF...THOUGH...AS THE LOW
AND ITS FRONT SWARMS INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW CIGS
AND VIS. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT AND ALSO AS ISOLATED CELLS TO ITS
SOUTH. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE TAFS AND GRIDS. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN
IS THE HIGH WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THAT WILL HAVE TROUBLE MIXING
DOWN UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. FOR THIS REASON HAVE CONTINUED THE
LLWS IN ALL THE TAFS WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SHOULD SIGNAL THE START OF IMPROVING AVN CONDITIONS WITH CIGS RISING
AT LEAST TO MVFR ALONG WITH VIS...THOUGH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
426 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PORTIONS OF THE MAIN STEM OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF THE CUMBERLAND AND RED RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH A SATURATED GROUND MAY CAUSE SOME
TREES TO TOPPLE.

SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND ON THE RIDGETOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OR TREES THAT MAY HAVE BLOWN
DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1136 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 S SOMERSET            37.07N 84.61W
02/24/2011                   PULASKI            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN WHICH FELL ON A VEHICLE.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1147 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     FLOOD            MEANS                   37.95N 83.76W
02/24/2011                   MENIFEE            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE MENIFEE COUNTY 911 DISPATCHER RECEIVED A REPORT OF
            WATER ACROSS US HWY 460 IN THE MEANS COMMUNITY.

&&

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1148 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

KYZ058-068-069-079-080-083>087-111-114-116-250600-
ESTILL-ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-WHITLEY-MCCREARY-LEE-JACKSON-
OWSLEY-CLAY-KNOX-BELL-
1148 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 100 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHERN ESTILL...
   LEE...
   JACKSON...
   OWSLEY...
   ROCKCASTLE...
   PULASKI...
   CLAY...
   LAUREL...
   KNOX...
   WAYNE...
   WHITLEY...
   MCCREARY AND
   WESTERN BELL.

AT 1146 PM EST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FROM 12 MILES WEST OF HARRODSBURG TO 28 MILES WEST OF
ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...PARNELL AROUND
1225 AM EST...FAUBUSH AROUND 1230 AM EST...TRIMBLE AROUND 1235 AM
EST...OIL VALLEY AROUND 1240 AM EST...WOODSTOCK AROUND 1245 AM EST...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

KAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
118 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

KYZ069-080-084>088-111>117-250700-
LAUREL-WHITLEY-MCCREARY-LEE-BREATHITT-JACKSON-OWSLEY-KNOTT-PERRY-
CLAY-LESLIE-KNOX-HARLAN-BELL-
118 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 200 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   SOUTHEASTERN LEE...
   SOUTHERN BREATHITT...
   SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...
   OWSLEY...
   WESTERN KNOTT...
   PERRY...
   CLAY...
   SOUTHEASTERN LAUREL...
   LESLIE...
   KNOX...
   WESTERN HARLAN...
   WHITLEY...
   EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND
   BELL.

AT 117 AM EST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BEATTYVILLE TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...ATHOL AROUND
125 AM EST...CHENOWEE AROUND 130 AM EST...DUMONT AROUND 135 AM EST...
SMITH BRANCH AROUND 140 AM EST...TOULOUSE AROUND 145 AM EST...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 50
MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

KAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
213 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

KYZ088-107-110-113-115-117>120-250745-
JOHNSON-MARTIN-FLOYD-PIKE-KNOTT-PERRY-LESLIE-LETCHER-HARLAN-
213 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 245 AM EST FRIDAY MORNING...

   EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
   SOUTHERN MARTIN...
   FLOYD...
   PIKE...
   EASTERN KNOTT...
   SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...
   EXTREME EAST CENTRAL LESLIE...
   LETCHER AND
   HARLAN.

AT 212 AM EST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PRESTONSBURG TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF HARLAN...MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...PREMIUM AROUND
215 AM EST...MOREE AROUND 220 AM EST...WHITEPOST AROUND 230 AM
EST...ROCKHOUSE AROUND 235 AM EST...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 50
MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

KAS