River Flood Advisory 35, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

.SHORT TERM

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE GUST FRONT...MUCH OF THE CWA HAS STABILIZED.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTH TO GENERATE OR SUSTAIN STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DROPPED THE TORNADO WATCH FROM THE NORTHERN ZONES
AND LEFT IT RUNNING IN THE SOUTH. IRONICALLY...THOUGH...THE BEST
THREAT FOR OUR SOUTH LOOKS TO BE AFTER THE WATCH WILL HAVE EXPIRED
AT 7 PM EDT. SPECIFICALLY...THE CURRENT BATCH OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY COME EAST...BUT
THEY ARE STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST BORDER OF THE
CWA. BY THAT TIME...OTHER FACTORS WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE SEVERE
THREAT. ALSO...WILL BE PLANNING ON DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORIES WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AT 7 PM EDT. THE FFA WILL CONTINUE
UNCHANGED AND LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN RISK FROM THIS ENTIRE EVENT.
UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...HWO AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD CENTERS AROUND SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SFC ANALYSIS AS OF 18Z SHOWS THE TRIGGER...A STRONG COLD
FRONT...STRETCHED FROM A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER AROUND THE HUDSON
BAY...RUNNING SOUTH THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUING DOWN
THRU THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
RATHER IMPRESSIVE PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WHICH HAD BEEN SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY EAST THRU WRN/CENTRAL KY HAS RUN INTO THE STABLE LAYER
OVER OUR AREA AND HAS BEGUN TO DIE OFF. THIS ENERGY POUNDING AWAY AT
THE CAP HAS WEAKENED IT TO SOME EXTENT HOWEVER...SFC BASED INSTABILITY
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES HAS NOW DROPPED OFF TO ALMOST NIL AND WITH
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN...AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN GET
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REDEVELOP FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION.

BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY DO SHOW SOME 1000 J/KG
CAPE REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA...BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE
NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT...PARTICULARLY THRU THE LOWER
LEVELS...AND STRONG WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THRU
THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...AS THE COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVES
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DROP OFF AGAIN...TAKING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WITH IT AS WE TRANSITION TOWARDS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TORNADO WATCH FOR
NOW SINCE AT THIS POINT THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIM POSSIBILITY THAT
ANY TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME ROTATION
WITHIN THEM.

LATEST ROUND OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL PROGGING AROUND 1.5 TO
2 INCHES OF QPF AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...PLUS/MINUS...DEPENDING ON
WHETHER WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO REGENERATE AND GET SOME
INTENSE RAIN RATES FROM ANY TSTMS TONIGHT. CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING...CONSIDERING THAT THE GROUNDS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...
PARTICULARLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FROM RECENT
RAINS...AND WHILE NO WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT TO LEAD TO SOME URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM PROBLEMS LOCALLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROLONGED EVENT AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS AS WELL.

WITH THAT...HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING WITH PRECIP
CHANCES PERSISTING THRU MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR LESS. CLOUDS AND/OR PRECIP LINGERING THRU THE DAY WILL
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FOR MOST. POST FRONTAL RAINS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE CLEARING WILL COME THE USUAL COOLING...AND AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT THINKING
WHICH HAS THE LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S. GIVEN THAT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND/OR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP TOMORROW
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE CLEARING TREND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BENEATH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE WITH THE COOLER BC MET MOS THRU
TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN OPTED TO BLEND THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE
COOLEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLEAR
SKIES DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER
DELMARVA AND A WEAK RIDGE FROM THE GULF TO LOWER MI. A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE OVER THIS RIDGE THRU THU NITE WITH EACH WAVE
TENDING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THEN ON FRI ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH THRU THE OH
VALLEY INTO SRN CANADA BY LATE SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE RESULTANT
WEATHER WILL BE FAIR WEATHER ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WITH
A WEAK SRLY FLOW THESE TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS IN
LATER FORECASTS. THE FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ON THU WITH AN INCREASE
IN THE SRLY WINDS AND HENCE TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE
PLAINS MID LVL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SFC THU NITE
WITH A WARM FNT STRETCHING TOWARDS ERN KY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN LATE THU NIGHT AND ON FRI WILL LIMIT FRI HIGH TEMPS
BUT THE SRLY FLOW WILL STILL PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 70. THE PCPN WILL
CONTINUE THRU FRI NITE AND SAT THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS DAWN
ON SUN. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE REGION...SAT WILL FEATURE
A COLDER AIRMASS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF RAIN WRAPPED AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 60.
THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE INTO SRN CANADA SAT NITE AND
DRAG THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND PCPN TOWARDS THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WILL THEN PLUMMET TO BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS DROPPING TO
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS THE NRLY WINDS COUPLED WITH ANY RESIDUAL
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPS ON SUN SOLIDLY IN THE 50S
BUT THEN WARMING TO AROUND 60 FOR MON.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHORTLY RESULT IN REDUCED VIS AND CIGS
THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY...AT LEAST DOWN TO MVFR. LATER THIS
EVENING...WHEN THE WINDS SWITCH AROUND MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...CIGS
WILL FALL FURTHER...INTO THE IFR RANGE ALONG WITH LOW VIS IN RAIN AND
FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS LATER THIS EVENING WITH SOME
GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>088-112>118.

&&

SHORT TERM...MB/GREIF
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
631 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-112>118-130145-
ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-
HARLAN-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...
HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG
631 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 131 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THERE IS A RISK OF SOME
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.
ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PATCHY VALLEY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>111-119-120-130145-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
631 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PATCHY VALLEY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DUSTY