Lake Wind Advisory 4, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT SAT APR 2 2011

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 14Z SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
WITH ALL VALLEY FOG BASICALLY DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. CONCERNS FOR TODAY INVOLVE HOW MUCH
MIXING WILL OCCUR CREATING SURFACE GUST AROUND 30 KNOTS AND ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
CWA. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OF 300 TO 500
CAPE IN THE NORTHERN CWA. ANOTHER QUICK SHORT WAVE IS POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL. CONCERNING THE WIND...MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 750MB SEEMS LIKELY TODAY AND WHILE WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY...DO THINK THAT 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND
GUST SEEM THE MOST LIKELY. SO DID NOT ISSUE. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...WHILE A WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL TEMPER HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...FEEL THAT A HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER MAX TEMP SO DID UP MAX TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/

PCPN FINALLY CLEARING THE STATE BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN OUR NRN
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. QPF DOES NOT LOOK VERY HEAVY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND EXPECTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO CLEAR THE CWFA BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD HAVE NEARLY 24 HRS OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE COOKING OVER THE WRN PLAINS SURGES INTO THE ARE. RATHER
STRONG GRADIENT WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY ON MONDAY AND COULD HAVE SOME
STRONG STORMS. WILL WORD AS SUCH IN THE ZFP AND HWO. WARMING TEMPS
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SRN PUSH OF GULF AIR AND INCREASED MOISTURE.
SOME STORMS MONDAY COULD BE HEAVY RAINERS ALSO.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH A POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. WHILE MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ON
SOME OF THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. RECENT RUNS HAVE
DEMONSTRATED SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS BY MODELS. WITH ONSET
LOOKING SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH THESE RUNS...AND BEING BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS IN THE CARDS
THRU EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PROVIDE A GUSTY DAY WITH STRONG
15 TO 20 KNOT SURFACE WINDS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 55 TO 65
KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT...A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS
POSSIBLE BUT MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR. THE ONLY INHIBITOR TO THIS EVENT AT
THIS POINT IS INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO PRELIMINARY SOUNDING DATA.
THIS FACTOR WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH AS THE BULK OF THE QPF
APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. THE 500 MB TROUGH BEGINS
TO TILT AS IT DEEPENS AND BEGINS TO TRANSLATE FROM A POSITIVE TO
NEGATIVE TILTED SYSTEM. WITH THE FRONT BEING IN A MORE NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND A GENERAL NEGATIVE TILT DEVELOPING...QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE ONLY BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS
PRESENT CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA. THE MODELS SHOW
SOME DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS BUT WILL ASSUME THERE WILL BE SOME POST
FRONTAL PRECIP SO KEPT POPS LINGERING THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA WITH A WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN STORE. ALL IN ALL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...MOSTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INSURES TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
NEAR OR WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO SWEEP INTO THE OH VLE BY THU NITE WITH ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF PCPN AND THEN SOME LINGERING LIGHT PCPN FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS ANY MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...A STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED
T-STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS...BUT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE MAIN TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWEST ONES AT 20
TO 30 KTS WINDING DOWN TOWARD SUNSET BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AROUND
MIDDAY SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH. THEY WILL GET QUITE GUSTY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. DURING THE
TRANSITION PERIOD TONIGHT THEY WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE
SFC WHILE ALOFT THEY SHOULD BE DOWN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NEED FOR LLWS
TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY/SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1018 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031730-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1018 AM EDT SAT APR 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF HAIL TODAY AS WELL
AS ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DUSTY/SHALLENBERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1134 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             SW SOMERSET             37.08N 84.61W
04/01/2011  M0.50 INCH       PULASKI            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LITTLE LARGER THAN PEA SIZED HAIL FELL SOUTHWEST OF
            SOMERSET.

0905 PM     HAIL             1 W ROCKCASTLE SPRINGS  37.02N 84.32W
04/01/2011  M0.50 INCH       LAUREL             KY   PUBLIC

            LARGEST SIZE 3/8 INCH IN DIAMETER...FELL FOR 3 MINUTES.
            COCORAHS OBSERVER.

0919 PM     HAIL             VOX                     36.99N 84.20W
04/01/2011  E0.25 INCH       LAUREL             KY   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZED HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AT LAUREL LAKES

0930 PM     HAIL             CORBIN                  36.94N 84.11W
04/01/2011  E0.25 INCH       WHITLEY            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0937 PM     HAIL             WOODBINE                36.90N 84.09W
04/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       WHITLEY            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT FROM WOODBINE FIRE DEPARTMENT.

0950 PM     HAIL             BARBOURVILLE            36.87N 83.88W
04/01/2011  E0.25 INCH       KNOX               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1008 PM     HAIL             ARJAY                   36.81N 83.65W
04/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       BELL               KY   PUBLIC

1011 PM     HAIL             PINEVILLE               36.76N 83.70W
04/01/2011  E0.50 INCH       BELL               KY   PUBLIC

1027 PM     HAIL             FONDE                   36.60N 83.88W
04/01/2011  E0.75 INCH       BELL               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL IN FONDE.

1125 PM     HAIL             1 SSE NED               37.40N 83.26W
04/01/2011  E0.25 INCH       PERRY              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WAS STILL FALLING WHEN REPORT WAS CALLED IN.

1153 PM     HAIL             THORNTON                37.16N 82.74W
04/01/2011  E0.88 INCH       LETCHER            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THORNTON.

1157 PM     HAIL             ISLAND CITY             37.37N 83.77W
04/01/2011  E0.25 INCH       OWSLEY             KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN THE SIZE OF PEAS WAS REPORTED
            IN ISLAND CITY.

&&

DSHALLEN