Frost Advisory 2, NWS Jackson, KY

554 
WWUS73 KJKL 020225
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING AFTER 3 AM...

.SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL DEEP
INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VALLEYS.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-108-111-114-116-
021300-
/O.CON.KJKL.FR.Y.0002.111002T0700Z-111002T1300Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-WOLFE-LEE-
OWSLEY-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
MANCHESTER
1025 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2011

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

* AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AS EARLY AS 3 AM 
  AND BURN OFF BY 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. 

* TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 32 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST 
  LOCATIONS. 

* THOSE WITH GARDENS SHOULD HARVEST OR TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT 
  TENDER PLANTS LIKE TOMATOES...SWEET POTATOES AND PUMPKINS. 
  SOYBEANS COULD ALSO SUFFER DAMAGE FROM FROST. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

ABE/JJ

644 
WWUS73 KJKL 021256
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
856 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-108-111-114-116-
021400-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-111002T1300Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-WOLFE-LEE-
OWSLEY-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
MANCHESTER
856 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2011

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

$$

ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL START TO PULL AWAY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE SYSTEM BRINGING PERIODIC INTRUSIONS
OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...MAINLY AFFECTING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FROST FORMATION TONIGHT. WHILE CLOUD COVER IS
RATHER EXTENSIVE AT THIS TIME ALL THE WAY UP INTO NORTHERN OHIO...
PROGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. TIME/HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW A
THINNING SATURATED LAYER OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INDICATE A
SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD...ESPECIALLY WEST OF JKL...
EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP
WELL INTO THE 30S AS SKIES CLEAR. AS SUCH...EXPECT AREAS OF FROST TO
DEVELOP LATE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND WILL ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE ADVISORY WILL BE A LINE FROM MOREHEAD TO MIDDLESBORO AS EXPECT
CLOUDS TO HANG ON AND LIMIT FROST COVERAGE EAST OF THAT LINE. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS KEEPING FROST PATCHY OR
NONEXISTENT WHERE IT DEVELOPS.

THE BREAK IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY BE
TEMPORARY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS
EVERYWHERE WITH THIS BUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
JKL. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE FAR EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND WE FOLLOWED THE
COOLEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY FROM JKL EASTWARD WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SHOULD KEEP THAT
FROM BEING HEADLINE WORTHY.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES. ON TUESDAY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WILL FINALLY BE LOSING ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA.
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH
TROFFING IN THE FAR WESTERN U.S. WE WILL SEE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN DURING THE COMING WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FOLLOW A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED TO OUR EAST. PERIODIC SHOWERS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED EAST OF JKL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS CIGS RISE...AND
EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT. TIMING OF THE RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
UNCERTAIN BUT WILL INDICATE IT TAKING PLACE BETWEEN 23Z AT SME AND
07Z AND JKL. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT LOZ AND SME. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER DAWN ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-108-111-114-116.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...ABE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
430 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I 75 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MB