Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Jackson, KY

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY

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WGUS63 KJKL 081517 AAA
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1117 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...

.THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WAS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY HAS
NOT YET MATERIALIZED. WITH ALL INDICATIONS THAT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN 
ALSO WILL NOT OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-081630-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-110708T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1117 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WAS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY IS NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM
CENTERS AROUND THE SHORT WAVE SPAWNING THE ONGOING MCV ACTIVITY ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVER WRN KY AND SRN IN. CURRENT STORM MOTION LOOKS TO
BE ALMOST DUE EAST AT AROUND 20 KTS AND EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE CWA AROUND 12Z. AM EXPECTING SOME ENHANCEMENT ONCE
THE SUN COMES UP AND IF FCST SOUNDINGS PAN OUT WOULD BE VERY
SURPRISED IF WE DO NOT END UP WITH SOME SHORT TERM HYDRO PROBLEMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS SUCH...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. WIND FIELDS ARE
LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER TODAY AND SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS...AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THE THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AS WELL...THOUGH
FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 15-16 KFT SHOULD MITIGATE THIS THREAT
SOMEWHAT AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CORES SEEMS TO BE A
BETTER BET.

MODEL PROGS CARRY THIS WAVE EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE HELD
ONTO POPS LONGEST OVER OUR SERN COUNTIES WHERE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE DISREGARDED WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE
MODELS THAT KEEPS PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VA/WV
BORDERS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPILLING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
MODERATING TEMPS TO THE AREA TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

INHERITED TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS TODAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND 80. HAVE KEPT MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA FOR LOWS TONIGHT...THOUGH ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL PROBABLY
REQUIRE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME AN ISSUE BY SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
ONWARD. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT FALLING APART
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. A NEW FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SINK TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN
QUASI STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. BY TUESDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT
TO MAKE A PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND BRING SOME SCATTERED STORMS TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO BRING A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ONE OF THE DIFFICULT PARTS OF THE FORECAST IS
TO DECIDE WHERE THE FRONT WILL SET UP AS THIS COULD HAVE SOME STRONG
TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD BE
ORIENTED FROM THE NW TO SE AND THE 00 GMT GFS WAS PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY POSITION AND FAVOR THE 12 GMT ECMWF.  I MAY STILL TWEAK
THE TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE BEFORE THE ZONES ARE ISSUED ONCE THE NEW
ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE. IN GENERAL...WENT A BIT WARMER
THAN THE MOS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE MOS HAS BEEN TOO COOL
LATELY. IF THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON WED AND
THURSDAY...THE THE BLUEGRASS AND THE AREA NEAR THE WV BORDER MAY BE
A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

IFR FOG HAS BEGUN TO SETTLE IN AROUND THE AREA AND WAS AFFECTING LOZ
AND EKQ AT ISSUANCE...OTHERWISE THE TERMINALS REMAIN M/VFR FOR THE
MOMENT. A MUCH ANTICIPATED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SRN IN/WRN KY IS
MOVING EAST AND IS ON PACE TO REACH THE AREA AROUND 10Z...BRINGING
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z OR SOONER. L/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE HEAVIER TSTMS ROLL THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAVE
TRIED TO TIME THE WINDOW FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...AM EXPECTING LINGERING BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR IN -TSRA AND
SHRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE MORE
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH CLEARING...BUT THIS
IS IN DOUBT AT THIS TIME SO WILL ONLY GO WITH MVFR FOG LATE IN THE
PERIOD FOR NOW AND LET THE LATTER TAFS TAKE A BETTER LOOK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
416 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS TO THE
AREA TODAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
CARRY THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCE OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR LARGE HAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

MB