Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO SOUTHERN OHIO.
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS LED TO VERY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS REMAINED NORTH
AND WEST OF FLEMING COUNTY WITH ONLY A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SCRAPING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS AROUND THE SEVERE THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
NORTH.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS IS FOR EVERYTHING
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-64 BY THIS EVENING.
STILL PLENTY OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO PROVIDE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITH THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. AS
FAR AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GOES...PWS REMAIN JUST OVER 1 INCH
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
TORRENTIAL RAINS NORTH OF I-64. WITH THIS POTENTIAL...GOING TO HOIST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FLEMING...BATH...AND ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. SOME PLACES UP NORTH HAVE ALREADY HAD OVER AN INCH FROM
LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH MORE TO CAUSE MORE
SERIOUS PROBLEMS.

SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL WANE BY LATE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS
PROVIDING ANOTHER BREAK TO AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RAMP UP AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER
SERIES OF NOCTURNAL MCS FORMING. THIS AGAIN WILL AID IN THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH. MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD FALL APART SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW...BEFORE THE THREAT OF MORE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN...THESE STORMS COULD
TURN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD RETREAT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR DRIER NIGHT IN THE NORTH. THESE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH VERY MILD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH THE VERY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE MOMENT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RETREATED NORTHWARD...LEAVING BEHIND
JUST A STRATOCU DECK AROUND 4-5KFT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW FAR SOUTH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT...BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IS FROM KJKL
NORTHWARD. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A VICINITY THUNDER AT KJKL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AND DIE OFF. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD ENTER THE PICTURE
LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL BRING ANOTHER VICINITY THUNDER INTO THE TAF AT
THAT POINT. LOOKS LIKE THE LLWS IS WEAKER TONIGHT...BUT STILL
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1131 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-241200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1131 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREATS.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT FOR LOCATIONS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...OR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GEOGERIAN