Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Jackson, KY

388 
WGUS73 KJKL 252004
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

KYC147-235-252018-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-110726T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WHITLEY KY-MCCREARY KY-
404 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MCCREARY AND SOUTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AS OF 4 PM EDT...CALLS TO MCCREARY AND WHITLEY COUNTY DISPATCH 
OFFICES INDICATE THAT NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
HAS ENDED. 

SINCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED...EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY 
RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE 
WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE 
FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO 
YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3680 8441 3685 8433 3671 8419 3660 8412
      3659 8427

$$

JACOBSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
109 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY AND TONIGHT/

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE NEW 12Z NAM. DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
BE EXITING TO THE SE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT...AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS
FOR TONIGHT. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
POP UP THIS EVENING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE RESIDUAL ORIGINAL SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST A CAP AROUND 10K FEET. HAVE
USED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO DWINDLE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A BLANKET OF STRATOCU LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...THOUGH SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS IS
BEGINNING TO THIN OUT SOME. 06Z OBS ALONG WITH THE FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER REVEALS SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE AREA...AND THIS TREND SHOULD TO CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE.

LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MI...NRN IL...AND INTO SRN
IA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SFC TROF IS SHOWING UP IN THE 06Z MESO
ANALYSIS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...AND IS KEEPING A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL KY.

FOLLOWING THE DISPERSAL OF ANY PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND/OR VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...THE PRE FRONTAL TROF LOOKS TO BRING A SWATH OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE CUMBERLAND AREA DURING THE MORNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THRU THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...AM EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
STEADILY THRU THE MORNING WITH A PEAK AROUND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND
A GRADUAL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE SUGGESTING A LITTLE BIT BETTER MOVEMENT WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS
AND DESPITE PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY PRIMED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS ERN KY...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FROPA IS
STILL PROGGED BY THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. THUS...THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED SHORT TERM HYDRO PROBLEMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE A POSSIBILITY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE USUAL
URBAN AREAS ALONG WITH LOWER ELEVATION AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS...WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE
SURPRISED IF ONE OR TWO AREAS THAT SEE A FEW TRAINING STORMS END UP
WITH SOME SHORT LIVED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS APPEARS AS A SECONDARY WAVE
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOWING UP AGAIN IN THE 25.00Z NAM. THIS FEATURE IS
TRIGGERING SOME WEAK...SCATTERED ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING DURING THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WHILE THIS SEEMS DUBIOUS...FELT IT WAS MORE
PRUDENT TO INCLUDE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THAN TO
DISMISS THIS COMPLETELY. WILL LET THE UPDATE TACKLE THIS AND DECIDE
WHETHER TO KEEP IT OR PULL IT OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BEGINS TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND LOOKS TO KEEP QUIETER WEATHER ON TAP THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY WERE SCALED BACK A TAD INTO THE MID
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT JUST AROUND
EITHER SIDE OF 7O. WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE INHERITED HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY BUT WITH DRIER AIR AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPS
COULD END UP WARMING MORE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING AND THIS WILL
GIVE US A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S...WITH A FEW LOCALS POTENTIALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S.
OVERALL...MAV MOS STILL LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WARM WITH THE MAX T/S AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY AROUND OR BELOW THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS. THE LATEST ROUND OF MOS ALSO HAD QUITE A RANGE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR...AND
LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE DIURNALLY LIMITED AND WARMER MET NUMBERS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. FOR THE MOST PART...THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE WERE TO FINE TUNE POPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE GROWING
CONSENSUS ON THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND AND TIMING WITH ITS PASSAGE
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF VERY QUIET WITH SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST...SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD INTO EAST KENTUCKY ONCE AGAIN. AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
RETURN TO GENERATE SOME AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
WEATHER RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WAS
IN THE SE AND THE LEAST IN THE NW. THIS GENERAL SPATIAL TREND IN
COVERAGE SHOULD PERSIST. COVERAGE SHOULD DROP OFF AGAIN FROM NW TO SE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NW. AT TAF SITES...EXPECTED COVERAGE/PROBABILITY DOES NOT
WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH AND A CB CLOUD GROUP. THERE IS A
SMALL RISK OF NEW DEVELOPMENT YET THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND
05Z...BUT THE PROBABILITY AROUND ANY GIVEN POINT IS TOO LOW TO
ADDRESS IT IN THE TAFS. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...LARGELY VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE IN PRECIP.

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. IT WILL LIKELY BECOME DENSE AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD FROM VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. VLIFR IS LIKELY IN FOG PRONE VALLEYS
LATE TONIGHT...AND EVEN SPREADING TO SOME NON-VALLEY PLACES BY DAWN.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z ON TUESDAY...WITH VFR TO FINISH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MB/HAL
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
441 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261145-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
441 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AROUND LOW
LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OR FLASH
FLOODING TODAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THEIR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

MB