Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
324 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE TO PRODUCE RAPIDLY FORMING
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY
WITH PULSE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INCLUDED HOMOGENEOUS CHANCE POPS WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING.

THURSDAY...FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTHEAST AS IRENE ADVANCES NORTHWARD...
WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
ESTABLISH OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SUSTAIN AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AS WELL ST. JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTIES...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST...WITH LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF IRENE IS PROGGED TO POSITION WELL EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. A VERY LOW RISK FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS IS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE LOCAL MAINLAND IS NOW
OUT OF THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY. AS ADVERTISED...HIGHEST POPS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS SUBSIDENCE (DOWNWARD MOTION)
WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR INLAND.

GIVEN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...MAINLY COASTAL CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EVENT IN THE FORM OF ROUGH SURF RESULTING IN
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS TIDES WILL BE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH.

.LONG TERM (SAT THRU TUE)...THERE MAY BE A TRAILING BAND OF MOISTURE/
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
BUT THIS IS AGAIN SUBJECT TO CHANGE. CLIMO POPS TO RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE SCATTERED STORMS WILL AT THE GNV
TERMINAL WHERE THERE WILL BE OCNL MVFR CIGS/VIS TIL 00Z.
OTHERWISE VCTS AT THE REST OF THE NE FL TERMINALS AND CB
AT SSI TIL 23Z-00Z. WITH WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
EXPECTING PATCHY FOG AND HAVE GONE WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY AT
GNV AND VQQ 08Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TIGHTENING WITH IRENE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALL LEGS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS SWELLS START TO ARRIVE. HIGH
RISK EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO LARGE SWELLS FROM IRENE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  72  93 /  20  30  20  20
SSI  77  87  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
JAX  74  89  74  92 /  20  50  30  40
SGJ  75  90  80  90 /  20  50  30  50
GNV  72  91  72  92 /  20  50  20  40
OCF  72  91  73  92 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

ZAPPE/PETERSON/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
525 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-241000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
525 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

EXACT LOCAL IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE IRENE ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON ITS EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON THE PRESENT FORECAST TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.

HIGH TIDES...HEAVY SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKERS AT
INLETS MAY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM. BEACHFRONT INTERESTS
SHOULD PLAN ON SECURING OBJECTS VULNERABLE TO SURF ACTION PRIOR TO
THE HIGH SURF DEVELOPING. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS WEEK AS WELL.

INTERESTS IN THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ON IRENE.

REVIEW YOUR FAMILY'S HURRICANE PLAN. ENSURE YOUR HURRICANE KIT IS
WELL STOCKED AND UP TO DATE. REVIEW THE WORKING CONDITION OF
EMERGENCY EQUIPMENT...SUCH AS FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERY POWERED
RADIOS. REVIEW EVACUATION ROUTES SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY.

MARINE INTERESTS MAY WISH TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AT THIS TIME...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU WILL BE AWAY FROM YOUR BOAT.

LOCAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL
MEDIA FOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

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