Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES AND VERY HOT TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS...

.CURRENTLY...SCT TO NMRS AREAS OF CONVECTION CONT ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES...MAINLY S OF I-10. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ELSEWHERE.
ONE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED NEAR MARION COUNTY AREA WITH
ANOTHER ONE FROM PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL NRN GA TO S CENTRAL AL.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH LOWER
READINGS OVER THE S ZONES WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS AND OCNL
CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED.

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...DEEPEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL CONT TO MOVE ACROSS NE FL
WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY WINDING DOWN LATE TONIGHT. LLVL SPEED
CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCT WEAK CONVECTION OVER OUR SW
ZONES BTN 06Z-12Z. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO SE GA BY MIDNIGHT AND SEEMS TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFT MIDNIGHT EVEN AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WED...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH AND OFF THE COAST OF NE FL. WEAK SFC TROFFING FROM SC
TO SW GA WILL MOVE EWD AND WILL LESSEN THE WLY GRADIENT FLOW OF
RECENTLY. MAX POPS AROUND 50% OVER SRN MOST ZONES WILL TAPER OFF TO
10-20% OVER NRN ZONES. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH TEMPS AGAIN TO
MID-UPPER 90S WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STILL...A HEAT ADVY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA TO
NEAR JAX. WED NIGHT...SFC TROF WEAKENS OVER THE AREA AND WEAK PRES
PATTERN AND ANY ISOLD CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

THU...MUCH DRIER CONDS ON NW FLOW/BUILDING HIGH PRES ALOFT EXPECTED
WITH ONLY 15-20% RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT
WITH HIGHS TOPPING AROUND 100 DEG! CURRENT RECORDS AT CLIMATE SITES
STAND AROUND THE 98-100 DEG RANGE AND THEY ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING
TIED OR BROKEN. AS FAR AS HEAT INDICES...SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
HELP READINGS STAY MOSTLY BELOW 110.

BY FRI...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT A BIT WWD AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND PWATS NUDGE UP A BIT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AT 20-30% ARE
ADVERTISED...BUT GENERALLY ISOLD ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE NVA AND DRY
MID LEVEL AIR. HIGHS AGAIN OPPRESSIVE IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
100 DEG READINGS EXPECTED IN A FEW SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...SAT-TUE.
ON SAT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO WHILE
BROAD TROUGHING WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NE U.S. COAST.
E COAST TROUGH DEEPENS ON SUN AND EARLY MON THOUGH THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO LIFT OUT BY LATE MON INTO TUE. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO THE REGION BY SUN AND
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON MON. THE FRONT MAY DISSIPATE/BECOME
DIFFUSE ON TUE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT BECOMES WEAK.

A WEAK PRES PATTERN ON SAT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO FORM WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ON SUN...AS
FRONT APPROACHES WLY FLOW WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCT CONVECTION AND
THEN SPREAD EWD TOWARD NE FL/SE GA COAST DURING THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...EXPECTED SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MON AND TUE. TEMPS LOOK
TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE ON SAT AND DROP SLIGHTLY BY SUN-TUE AS .

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE RECENTLY ADDED TEMPO TSRA GROUPS WITH IFR VISIBILITIES AT THE
JACKSONVILLE AREA TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BRIEF AND WILL LIKELY WRAP UP BY
21Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...

NOCTURNAL SURGE WILL DICTATE ONE MORE SCEC HEADLINE OVER THE
OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN SOME WITH
MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 35
PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  73 100 /  30  10  10  20
SSI  78  95  78  97 /  20  20  10  10
JAX  76  97  75  99 /  30  30  20  20
SGJ  76  94  77  96 /  30  30  20  10
GNV  75  95  75  99 /  30  40  20  20
OCF  75  94  76  98 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/SHULER/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1120 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-101000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1120 AM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 110 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. HEAT INDICES
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE AFTER
1 PM...WHICH MAY PRODUCE WINDS OF 35 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

DANGEROUS HEAT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 105 EACH AFTERNOON. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THOUGH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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