Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
234 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE MEAN LAYER RIDGE (100-500MB) REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG GA COAST TO A
MESO-LOW NEAR THE OKEFENOKEE AND SW TO THE GULF COAST. CONVECTION
IS FIRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...MOVING NE UNTIL REACHING
THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE...THEN MOVING EAST AND OFFSHORE.

.SHORT TERM...BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS
PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S...EXPECT SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
SIMILAR SCENARIO IS FORECAST AGAIN MONDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING OUT NEAR 105 IN THE AFTN. MEAN LAYER RIDGE WILL DRIFT
FARTHER SOUTH AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MORE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE WATERS AS WLY
FLOW KEEPS SEA BREEZE FROM ADVANCING INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRING A TRANSITION TO DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO SRN GA WITH ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MORE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO UPR 80S AND LOW 90S BUT
STILL HUMID WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED FOR SE GA AND SCTD FOR FL. MET GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER POPS
THAN MAV DUE TO DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRONT IS STALLED OVER S GA KEEPING A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION. WILL GO WITH NUMEROUS STORMS FOR N PORTION MAINLY N OF
US HWY 82 AND SCTD STORMS ELSEWHERE. ON THURS...DEEP MOISTURE
BEGINS LIFTING N AND W PER THE GFS MODEL AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FRI/SAT WITH SFC RIDGE LINING UP ALONG THE FL/GA
BORDER...AND RESULTING DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WILL LOWER POPS BACK
BELOW CLIMO WHILE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY
THE MODELS SHOW RIDGE SAGGING SOUTH ALLOWING SEA BREEZES ON BOTH
COASTS TO MOVE INLAND AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVNG
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AND
OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COMBINE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD AFFECT AREA TERMINALS. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH LOSS OF HEATING. UNLESS A TERMINAL GETS A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF RAIN...OVERNIGHT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AND
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT NIGHT TONIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL EFFECTS. MARINE HEADLINES
ARE NOT ANTICIPTED FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  95  75  89 /  20  30  30  60
SSI  79  91  78  88 /  20  40  30  50
JAX  75  94  76  90 /  20  30  10  40
SGJ  76  90  76  89 /  20  20  10  40
GNV  74  95  75  92 /  20  30  10  40
OCF  74  94  75  92 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/STRUBLE/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-251000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
422 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...HEAT INDICES 104 TO 109 THIS AFTERNOON...

HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE
104 TO 109 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MAINLY
INLAND AREAS.

PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE COMPLEX IN THE
OKEFENOKEE SWAMP WILL AFFECT VISIBILITIES NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF
THE FIRE SITES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DAYTIME HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 104 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FLZ025-033-241945-
DUVAL-ST. JOHNS-
308 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ST.
JOHNS AND SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 308 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES EAST OF UNF...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND UNF...SAN
PABLO...NEPTUNE BEACH...JACKSONVILLE BEACH...PONTE VEDRA BEACH...
SAWGRASS...PALM VALLEY AND BAYARD THROUGH 345 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3009 8156 3034 8160 3038 8139 3016 8134
      3013 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 347DEG 5KT 3027 8147

HESS

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