Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
314 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...AS WILL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK BOTH DAYS. THROW IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 105
AND 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS MARGINAL FOR
TOMORROW BUT WE MAY END UP NEEDING ONE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

MID LEVEL VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...AND IS AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TWO
SEABREEZES. THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE GOT OFF TO A MUCH EARLIER
START TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER STEERING FLOW...THUS THE TWO SEABREEZES
WILL COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR (JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 301) LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG AND SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
EAST COAST ALONG A SLOW MOVING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FAIRLY
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER PARTS OF SE GA IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. NORTHEAST FLORIDA
PORTIONS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES SNEAK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. ON THE OTHER HAND...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE 90 DEGREES DEPENDING ON HOW SOON
PRECIP BEGINS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE
IT ON TUESDAY AND ALSO ON HOW FAST IT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE
LATEST GFS RUN STALLS THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY SENDS IT BACK NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP...BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO
QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA WITH BEST CHANCES OF STORMS AROUND GNV ATTM. HAVE INSERTED
TEMPO GROUP FOR GNV BASED ON VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR...WITH JAX AND
CRG ONLY NEEDING VCTS FOR NOW. AS CONVECTION WINDS DOWN TONIGHT...
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES TOO SMALL TO INSERT AT THIS
TIME. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH SSI AND CRG WILL MOVE
THROUGH JAX WITHIN NEXT 1 HR OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE S AND SW AT 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LLVL RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY S OF THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD. E COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED SAT AND SUN
NEARSHORE. NOCTURNAL SURGES POSSIBLE PRODUCING BRIEF SCEC
CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS... THOUGH CHANCES TONIGHT DON'T
SEEM HIGH. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LOWER...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FEET NEAR THE GULFSTREAM EACH NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  99  75  99 /  20  30  20  20
SSI  79  93  79  97 /  10  30  20  30
JAX  75  96  77  98 /  20  30  20  30
SGJ  77  92  77  94 /  20  30  20  30
GNV  74  96  75  98 /  30  40  30  20
OCF  74  95  75  97 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/SHASHY/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
430 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PATCHY SMOKE FROM THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE COMPLEX IN THE
OKEFENOKEE SWAMP WILL AFFECT VISIBILITIES NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF
THE FIRE SITES TODAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE
104 TO 109 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

DAYTIME HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 105 TO 110 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ

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