Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROF CONTINUES FROM E CANADA TO AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE NW GOMEX. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH ANOTHER HIGH CENTERED OVER OK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM THE S GOMEX AND W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND NE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY MOVING SLOWLY S ACROSS N GA. NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSING SE ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA SINCE MID-MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS GOTTEN PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER AS DAYTIME HEATING
FEEDS INSTABILITY. OTHER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MOTION IS
GENERALLY SLOW AND ELY...ALTHO OUTFLOW IS PUSHING INLAND SE GA
ACTIVITY MORE RAPIDLY SE. EARLY AFTN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
80S IN RECENT RAIN AREAS TO THE LOWER 90S IN SUNNIER LOCALES.

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. BEST SUPPORT FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF TSTM OUTFLOW ACROSS SE GA...AND THIS AREA IS
CLOSER TO AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF TROF.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO EXTREME NE FL AS WELL...
INTERACTING WITH THE ATLC SEABREEZE. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME
STRONGER STORMS A BIT LATER THIS AFTN...AS WELL AS SLOW STORM
MOTION.

ATLC UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS HIGH TO THE NW SHIFTS
CLOSER TO THE AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SINK S AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER...CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED
DURING MAINLY THE AFTN HOURS. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE EARLY
CONVECTION ALONG THE GOMEX COAST WHICH WILL SPREAD INLAND THRU THE
DAY.

PRECIP H2O OVER 2 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTION WILL PROMOTE SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIP H2O IS PROGGED TO DECREASE BY
MON...BUT STORM MOTION MAY BE EVEN SLOWER AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. POPS
SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. AS MENTIONED BY MID SHIFT...BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE N LATE IN THE COMING
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH TEMPO LIFR
ALREADY OBSERVED AT GNV DUE TO LOW VSBYS IN +RA. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET IN AREAL EXTENT...THEN LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY SUPPORT IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME
HAVE ADVERTISED SCT010 IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...SSW FLOW 10-15 KTS AND COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  74  95 /  30  60  30  50
SSI  77  90  77  90 /  30  60  30  40
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  30  60  30  50
SGJ  75  89  75  90 /  30  60  30  50
GNV  73  92  73  93 /  30  60  30  60
OCF  73  92  74  92 /  20  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-101000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
250 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW
STORM MOTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SLOW MOVING STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND ALONG WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO SEND REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/SEC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
339 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

FLZ024-092030-
NASSAU-
339 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL NASSAU
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES WEST OF ST. MARYS...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF KINGSLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ST. MARYS THROUGH 430 PM
EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3059 8165 3076 8177 3074 8165 3073 8165
      3074 8162 3072 8161 3073 8160 3072 8160
      3071 8153 3073 8153 3072 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 311DEG 7KT 3067 8165

ZAPPE