Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPR LOW SWIRLING OVER CTRL GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MOISTURE PLUME FROM CTRL AMERICA NWD ACRS FL PENINSULA. UPR RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER FCST AREA FROM ATLANTIC...WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING N
OF FCST AREA.

.SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU FRI NGT...MODELS SHOW INCREASING PRECIP
WATER VALUES SPREADING NWD AS DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN MOISTURE
PLUME ADVECTS ACRS NRN FL INTO SRN GA. MODELS INDICATE WEAK WAVE
ROTATING NWD AROUND CTRL GOM UPR LOW APRCHG SRN FL THIS
AFTN...MARKED BY SHRA/TSRA...MOVING NWD TO CTRL FL TNGT THEN OFF E
CST OF NRN FL TMRW. NAM EVEN TRIES TO DVLP A SUBSTANTIAL SFC LOW
OFF E FL COAST WHICH OTHER MODELS AREN'T SHOWING YET SO
DISCOUNTING ATTM. WEAKNESS IN LLVL WINDS MAY ALLOW E COAST SEA
BREEZE TO GET INTO INTERIOR NE FL/SE GA THU AFTN. EXPECT INCRSD
CLOUDINESS WITH FEATURE...WITH INCRSG SHRA/TSRA DURING DAY
THU...PROB BEST CHC WELL W OF I-95 CORRIDOR.

MODELS...ESP ECMWF...SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES NRN/CTRL FL
LATE FRI INTO FRI NGT...THEN ACRS NRN FL FRI NGT/ERLY SAT AND OFF
GA CST LATER SAT. THIS FEATURE COULD SPREAD DECENT RAINFALL ACRS
NE FL LATE FRI INTO SAT...BUT FOR NOW SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF
THIS FEATURE ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HI CHC TO
LKLY POPS NE FL FRI AFTN...CONTINUED CHC POPS THRU FRI NGT AND
SAT. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER RAIN CHCS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPS NE FL COMPARED TO INTERIOR SE GA.

.LONG TERM...SAT THRU WED...UPR LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER SE
GA/NE FL THRU WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE UPR HIGH BUILDS
OVER WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE PATTERN OF
DAILY AFTN/EVNG RAIN CHANCES AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS WITH EXCEPTION OF VCNTY OF TSRA
AND POSSIBLE MVFR IN SMOKE AT SSI.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 8-10 SEC WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE SEAS. COMBINED SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT. ONSHORE WINDS
ARE 5-10 KT NEARSHORE AND 10-15 KT OFFSHORE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE NWD TONIGHT/THURS DISPLACING THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL REBUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH RH'S WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HEALTH
CONCERN. NO RED FLAGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  95  73  96 /  20  40  20  40
SSI  77  89  77  91 /  10  20  20  40
JAX  72  91  73  93 /  10  30  20  60
SGJ  74  88  73  91 /  10  20  20  60
GNV  72  93  71  93 /  10  40  20  60
OCF  73  93  72  92 /  10  40  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/TRABERT/LETRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
316 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
316 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SMOKE EMANATING FROM THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE WILL AFFECT AREAS
FROM THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AFFECTING THE
WAYCROSS VICINITY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THOSE WITH RESPIRATORY
CONDITIONS...AND THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE SMOKE INCLUDING THE
ELDERLY...YOUNG CHILDREN AND PETS...SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS AS MUCH
AS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES...CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OVER INLAND AREAS WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS
AND USE EXTRA CAUTION IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ALONG WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT THAT WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR THEIR LOCATIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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