Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

TONIGHT THRU WED...VERY TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AS WEAK TROUGH LINGERS IN THE MID LEVELS ACRS THE REGION. PRECIP
WATER AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE JUST BELOW 2 INCHES AND EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BOTH
TUE/WED WITH VERY SIMILAR CONDS TO TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 105 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
SCTD STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH WINDS/HAIL...AS WELL AS SLOW AND
ERRATIC STORM MOTION TO PROMOTE LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING STRONGER
STORMS.

THU...MODELS ALL DEPICTING SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PUSHING INTO
THE SERN U.S. AROUND LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WEST OF THE
REGION AND THIS SHOULD CUT BACK TSTM COVERAGE ACRS SERN GA TO SCTD
(30-40%) DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE NERN FL WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
(40-60%) RANGE DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...

JUST ENOUGH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN TO SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TSTM CHANCES
IN THE 30-50% RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. HAVE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR AFTER 00Z AS CONVECTION DECREASES.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NOCTURNAL SW WIND SURGES UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING GIVEN SW STEERING FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  95  70  95 /  30  60  30  60
SSI  72  90  72  90 /  20  40  20  40
JAX  71  91  71  92 /  30  50  20  60
SGJ  73  90  73  92 /  20  40  20  50
GNV  72  93  72  94 /  30  60  30  70
OCF  72  92  72  94 /  30  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/ZIBURA/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
915 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-280930-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
915 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER INLAND AREAS WILL
LEAD TO HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF
YOUR PLAN TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS TODAY.

PATCHES OF SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE COMPLEX AND OTHER
WILDFIRE LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT THAT WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS/JCH

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