Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT-WED.
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN BY LATE EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION WILL
ENHANCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO SEVERE CRITERIA. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN GA EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD AND MAY HELP SUSTAIN ISOLD
CONVECTION OVER SE GA AFT MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVER INLAND
PORTIONS LATE.

MON...WEAK SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING BACK UP AGAIN
WITH SCT CONVECTION IN THE AFTN HRS. WEAK FORCING ALOFT MAY  ENHANCE
ISOLD STRONG STORMS. BEST POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED IN OVER INLAND NE FL
AT 50-60%. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING 100-105. MON NIGHT...S-SW FLOW AGAIN WITH MEAN RIDGE AXIS
OVER CENTRAL FL. SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NE FL DUE
TO MORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WITH A VORT LOBE OVER N CENTRAL FL.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT MIDNIGHT.

TUE...WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS NOTED OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO
AL/MS WITH RIDGE AXIS TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL FL. W COAST SEA
BREEZE SHOULD BE DOMINATE...WITH A WEAK E COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTN ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AFTN AND
EVENING...THOUGH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM NW MAY BEGIN TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WED...SIMILAR FCST TO TUE BUT RIDGE
RETROGRADES A BIT ALLOWING A BIT MORE NWLY FLOW...WHICH MAY PUSH
MORE STORMS TO THE E COAST. WILL CONT WITH SCT POPS AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...THU-SUN.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE E TO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SRN GA ON THU AND
BECOME DIFFUSE BY FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GENERALLY
PROMOTE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE E COAST SEA BREEZE. THE GFS IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING RATHER LOW MOISTURE FOR THE AREA WITH PWATS
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL 1.7 INCHES OR LESS...ESPECIALLY ON THU.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND LOW RES 12Z ECMWF SHOW MORE THAN
ADEQUATE MOISTURE LEVELS TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR RAIN CHANCES DUE
TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
TO OUR NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/TSRA CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 00Z EXCEPT FOR SSI
WHERE STORMS MAY OCCUR LATER. NOT MUCH FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
POSSIBLY MVFR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SW
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BECOME SE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE
FORMATION. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  95  72  95 /  30  30  20  40
SSI  76  93  76  90 /  10  20  20  30
JAX  72  92  72  92 /  10  40  20  30
SGJ  74  89  73  89 /  20  40  20  30
GNV  71  91  70  92 /  30  50  30  40
OCF  72  90  71  91 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/ZIBURA/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
518 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-270930-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
518 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...INCLUDING AREAS NEAR
ALMA...HOMERVILLE...AND VALDOSTA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PATCHES OF SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE COMPLEX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

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