Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TO
THE FL PANHANDLE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER. SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO N GA.
THICK CLOUDINESS HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED SE LEAVING THE NW 1/3 OF
THE AREA PARTLY CLOUDY. ATLANTIC AND GULF SEABREEZES HAVE
PROGRESSED INLAND ABOUT 5 MILES. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP...MOSTLY NEAR AND S OF A KGNV TO KSGJ LINE WHERE SHEARED
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IS LOCATED. ANOTHER NARROW AND BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR KSSI TO S OF KHOE...LIKELY DUE
TO ANOTHER WEAK PVA AXIS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE THICKER CLOUDINESS. 2 PM TEMPS RANGE ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 90S IN SUNNIER AREAS TO THE UPPER 80S IN CLOUDIER LOCALES
AND NEAR THE ATLC COAST.

.SHORT TERM...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE SE
1/3 OF THE AREA...HELPED ALONG BE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE WANING FOR SECONDARY LINE OF
STORMS...BUT THEY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON DUE
TO FURTHER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION.

DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM BOTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE S AND
THE FRONTAL TROF TO THE N. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUN WILL BE
OVER THE EXTREME S ZONES ONCE AGAIN WITH MORE UNIFORM POPS BY MON
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD JUST S OF THE AREA...SENDING
TEMPS BACK UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE TO THE S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE
AGAIN...LEAVING THE AREA CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP THRU
THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO TSRA IN TAFS TIL 23Z WHEN CONVECTION SHOULD START
DECREASING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BRIEFLY IN HEAVY
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH TO SOUTH
AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST WITH DAILY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
SEAS REMAINING MOSTLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  97  72  96 /  20  30  30  40
SSI  75  92  76  91 /  10  20  20  30
JAX  72  95  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
SGJ  73  91  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
GNV  70  94  71  94 /  20  50  30  40
OCF  71  94  71  94 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/ZIBURA/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
441 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-260845-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
441 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. STORMS WILL BECOME MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS IN
THIS AREA MAY BECOME STRONG. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

PATCHES OF SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE COMPLEX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
416 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

FLZ037-040-252100-
MARION-PUTNAM-
416 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PUTNAM
AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 410 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PALATKA TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF JUNIPER SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND ORANGE
SPRINGS...MANNVILLE...JOHNSON...INTERLACHEN...HOLLISTER...HOG
VALLEY...SALT SPRINGS...PALATKA...JUNIPER SPRINGS AND WELAKA THROUGH
500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2918 8191 2956 8201 2970 8180 2967 8152
      2949 8152 2945 8149 2936 8149 2932 8167
      2928 8164 2916 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 276DEG 15KT 2960 8171 2926 8178

SHASHY