Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER NW ZONES INTO
THIS EVENING...
...MORE STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR AND S OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER N GA. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR W OF THE AREA HAS LED SPC TO ISSUE A TORNADO
WATCH WHICH COMES ALL THE WAY UP TO OUR NW ZONES. TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE ATLC COAST WITH A SEABREEZE
TO THE MID 80S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST WHERE SW WINDS PREVAIL.
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY OF N FL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S OVER THE SE ZONES.

.SHORT TERM...TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AS THEY CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TOWARD OUR NW ZONES LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND DRY AIR OVER SE ZONES HOLD FIRM A BIT
LONGER...STILL LOOKS LIKE TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL ONLY AFFECT THE
NW 1/3 OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ANY RIGHT MOVERS OR OUTFLOWS COULD SEND
CONVECTION A BIT MORE SE THAN FORECAST.

SMOKE FROM SE GA FIRES SHOULD SPREAD ALMOST DUE NE OVERNIGHT...
ALTHO DISRUPTIONS IN THIS DISPERSAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR NEAR ANY
TSTMS.

BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SUN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS SE GA...PERHAPS INTO EXTREME
N FL WITH BEST CAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG AND CONTINUED BULK SHEAR.
LOWER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE DAY OVER OUR SE
ZONES AND MINIMAL POPS ARE EXPECTED THERE.

GFS STALL THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES IT THRU
WITH NE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP THRU MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHO EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP WILL
BE PROBLEMATIC...HAVE CONTINUED POPS MORE OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. LLWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUN. CHANCES OF STORMS ARE TOO LOW TO ADD TO TAFS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SCEC HEADLINES POSSIBLE OVER OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO THE SWLY
WINDS. FRONT PASSES MON NIGHT AND SCEC IS EXPECTED AGAIN AS FLOW
SHIFTS TO NE. THE NELY FLOW TUE WILL VEER AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
NWD TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIEST CONDS THIS AFTN ARE ALONG THE E COAST.
THE INTERIOR REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL RH. LOW RH SHOULD NOT BE A
CONCERN ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE HAVOC ON EXISTING FIRES. WINDS WILL
ABATE ON MONDAY. RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRU MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  83  58  77 /  30  60  30  40
SSI  62  79  61  72 /  10  40  30  40
JAX  60  85  63  77 /  10  20  30  50
SGJ  62  83  64  77 /  10  10  30  50
GNV  58  85  62  80 /  10  20  30  50
OCF  57  86  63  82 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

CARROLL/TRABERT/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-271000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
930 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...
...AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES
TODAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND HAIL ONE
HALF INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO
SEVERAL ONGOING WILDFIRES. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING IN THESE AREAS
AS VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA...

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SUNDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME
NORTH FLORIDA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES COMING IN FROM THE GULF WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
321 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

GAZ134>136-262000-
APPLING-BACON-WAYNE-
321 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
WAYNE...EASTERN APPLING AND EASTERN BACON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SURRENCY...OR 9
MILES EAST OF ALMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SURRENCY...ODUM...JESUP
AND DOCTORTOWN THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3190 8211 3185 8208 3179 8199 3179 8196
      3176 8193 3176 8191 3166 8183 3166 8180
      3159 8171 3149 8218 3153 8223 3150 8227
      3149 8230 3163 8238 3190 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 243DEG 26KT 3157 8230

SHULER