Small Craft Advisory 37, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
902 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

.UPDATE...
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEGUN. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR 50
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. KJAX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED NEARLY 10 DEGREES WITHIN LAYER BELOW 850 MB WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY ACROSS TENNESSEE AND INTO WV. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NLY WINDS CONTINUE
AROUND 15 MPH NEAR THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND WINDS ARE CALM OVER
SE GA AND 5-10 MPH OVER FL. WINDS SHIFTING TO NELY TONIGHT WILL
KEEP COASTAL ZONES A TAD WARMER AT 50 TO 55 THAN INLAND ZONES
WHERE LOW/MID 40S WILL DOMINATE. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO BRING IN
LINE WITH LATEST OBS...BUT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR
CHANGES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NE LATE TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME SPEEDS WILL
NEAR 25-30 KTS...AND COUPLED WITH A 6-9 KT SFC SPEED BELIEVE THAT
WIND SHEAR WILL NOT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR ALL LEGS WILL RUN THROUGH SUNDAY. RECENT OBS
REPORTED NLY WINDS SUSTAINED 20G28KT AT THE ST AUGUSTINE C-MAN
(SAUF1) AND WINDS 23G29KT AT THE BUOY 43 NM E OF ST AUGUSTINE
(41012). COMBINED SEAS WERE 4-7 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT WHILE VEERING MORE NNE...AS WAVES BUILD.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH RISK ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WX...BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS 15-20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES...BUT
WESTERN ZONES NEAR THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY MAY NEAR 35% BRIEFLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...NO RED FLAGS OR FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  68  48  69 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  50  66  56  69 /   0  10  30  40
JAX  44  68  54  73 /   0  10  30  40
SGJ  55  69  62  74 /   0  20  50  40
GNV  45  70  57  76 /   0  10  50  30
OCF  47  73  59  78 /   0  10  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

MKT/ABE/MM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-301000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
313 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ABE