Small Craft Advisory 18, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
155 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...STACKED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE LOCAL WX THROUGH SAT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPS. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE KEEPING THE COAST IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 DEG. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST
AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOCALLY DENSE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT NEAR OCALA WHERE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE STRONGER.

SAT NIGHT A WEAKENING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NNE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...BUT FARTHER
SSW NEAR GNV-OCF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SAT
NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THOSE
AREAS IN THE GRIDS.

COOLER...BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW SUN WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE
ENTIRE CWA WITH LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHRA/SPRINKLES.
HIGHS WILL NEAR LOW/MID 70S EASTERN ZONES...TO LOWER 80S TOWARD THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW POPS
IN THE EASTERN

MON HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH LIGHT
FLOW OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND WITH THE
SEA BREEZES KEEPING THE COAST COOLER UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI...12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE. PREV DISCUSSION...WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND MINS IN THE 50S. THU MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED WITH A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF POPS FOR SHRA ALONG THE FRONT
DUE TO VERY MEAGER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND BRIDGES THE FRONT FRI WITH A COOL...BREEZY ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED LOCALLY AS HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE 70S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE
TOWARD EARLY MORNING. FOG TOOLS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FOG WILL
NOT BE AS LIKELY AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY SAT MORNING BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...NO MARINE HEADLINES UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...WHEN
SCEC AND/OR SCA HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE AS BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SWD.
CURRENT THINKING IS AT LEAST SCEC FOR NRN WATERS EARLY SUN MORNING
AND THEN EVENTUALLY SRN WATERS BY SUN AFTN. SEAS MAY TOP 6-7 FT
OUTER WATERS SUN AFTN AND NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY WEAKEN MON AS SFC
HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE WATERS BUT LINGERING SEAS/SWELLS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED NEAR 3-6 FT.

&&

.FIRE WX...RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 35 PERCENT ON SAT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH.
ATTM...ERC VALUES FCST TO BE THRESHOLDS IN NE FL FOR WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS. INCREASED MOISTURE ON SUN LIKELY TO PRECLUDE STATEMENTS
AND WARNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  86  56  75 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  56  79  59  71 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  49  84  55  77 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  55  78  58  75 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  50  84  51  82 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  50  84  50  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PP/ARS/AW

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