Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.UPDATE...SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE SE
GA COUNTIES S OF PEARSON TO HOMERVILLE. THE LINE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE VERY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPE OF 4000 J/KG ON KTAE AND 3200 J/KG ON KJAX.
LI'S ARE AROUND -8. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...AND WITH HELICITIES ABV 200 ISOLD TORNADOES ARE
PSBL. THE ACTIVITY IS WILL MOVE ACRS SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS
MORN AND OVER REMAINDER OF NE FL THIS AFTN. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO
REACH HIGHS IN MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SE PORTION...AND CONCERN
IS THAT STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AS SQUALL LINE AND LATER THE
FRONT INTERACT WITH CONVECTION FROM HEATING AND SEABREEZES.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NE FL AND
COASTAL ZONES INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FADING. GRIDS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SCT TS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
SINCE EXACT TIMING NOT KNOWN AND SCT NATURE OF THE STORMS...WILL
ADD TEMPO GROUPS AS TSRA DEVELOPS WEST OF TERMINALS...BUT DO HAVE
VCTS BEGINNING AT 16Z. AMENDMENTS WILL BE DONE FOR TS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS ARE DECREASING AT THE BUOYS AND WILL ALLOW
THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 14Z...AND REPLACE WITH SCEC HEADLINE FOR
OFFSHORE LEGS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SCT STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE
STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTN AND EVNG OUT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND MAY SEE BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  53  81  51 /  60  20   0   0
SSI  85  60  78  59 /  60  50   0   0
JAX  89  59  81  53 /  60  50   0   0
SGJ  89  64  78  59 /  60  40   0   0
GNV  89  61  83  51 /  60  40   0   0
OCF  91  63  84  52 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

MKT/ABE/SEP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
841 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

GAZ134>136-281330-
APPLING-BACON-WAYNE-
841 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE...CENTRAL APPLING AND NORTHERN BACON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 930 AM EDT...

AT 841 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALMA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND ALMA...BAXLEY...SURRENCY AND ODUM THROUGH 930 AM EDT. HAIL UP
TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3185 8209 3183 8205 3183 8201 3179 8198
      3160 8198 3151 8260 3155 8259 3156 8262
      3166 8262 3168 8259 3167 8252 3171 8252
      3190 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 244DEG 43KT 3160 8251

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
844 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

GAZ149-162-163-281330-
ATKINSON-CLINCH-ECHOLS-
844 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
ATKINSON...WESTERN CLINCH AND NORTHERN ECHOLS COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 930 AM EDT...

AT 843 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE FROM 18 MILES
NORTHWEST OF DU PONT TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAYDAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND
MAYDAY...PEARSON...DU PONT...HOMERVILLE...COGDELL...AXSON AND ARGYLE
THROUGH 930 AM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3080 8314 3081 8311 3083 8311 3086 8308
      3086 8302 3088 8298 3118 8298 3119 8305
      3128 8305 3136 8263 3128 8263 3128 8269
      3123 8270 3106 8261 3072 8272 3073 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 1243Z 242DEG 31KT 3117 8305 3098 8301
          3077 8314

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

GAZ150>152-163-164-281400-
BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-PIERCE-WARE-
922 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL WARE...
PIERCE...WESTERN BRANTLEY...CENTRAL CLINCH AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

AT 922 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILLWOOD TO 13
MILES SOUTH OF ARGYLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND MILLWOOD... ARGYLE...
MANOR... DIXIE UNION... WARESBORO... NEEDHAM... WAYCROSS...
SUNNYSIDE... DEENWOOD AND BLACKSHEAR THROUGH 1000 AM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3118 8270 3118 8267 3122 8269 3127 8268
      3128 8265 3127 8263 3129 8263 3148 8208
      3146 8206 3138 8204 3136 8201 3102 8209
      3085 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1322Z 248DEG 37KT 3124 8259 3091 8269

ENYEDI