Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
238 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...RIGHT ON CUE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT
THEM TO OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPS HAVE SOARED
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING THE CENTURY
MARK. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE HELICITY
VALUES ARE BETWEEN 100-200 M2/S2 AND CAPE VALUES AREA WIDE ARE IN
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN A BIT AFTER SUNSET
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MAIN RAIN BAND FROM T.S. LEE REMNANT WILL BE JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR TO CONTINUE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT. MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE AS SOUTH WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AT 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS MAIN RAIN BAND FROM T.S. LEE
REMNANT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WELL AS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20G30MPH ARE
EXPECTED AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ONCE AGAIN. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION PERIOD AS TRAILING AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXPECT RAINFALL ACTIVITY TO BECOME LESS INTENSE AND ONLY ISOLATED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
CLOSER TO 70 ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

THURSDAY...FULL EFFECT OF DRY AIR SWEEPING AROUND THE BASE OF CUT-
OFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD BE FELT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND NO PCPN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...DRY AIR AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF SHOULD KEEP AREA PCPN
FREE WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY...SOME LIMITED MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...DIFFS IN 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND ENSEMBLE RUNS
SHOWS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS
LIKELY FROM THE SOUTH BUT HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION. FOR NOW HAVE
CAPPED POPS AT 30%...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE NE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO TONIGHT AFFECTING TAF SITES. MOSTLY VFR WITH TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR EARLY TUESDAY AS RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OBSERVED OVER THE WATERS
WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARRIVING
FROM KATIA WITH PERIODS UP TO 15 SECONDS. HAVE ADDED SCA HEADLINE
TO NEAR SHORE ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS CONDITIONS WILL
BE AT LEAST MARGINAL NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DECREASE STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE KATIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  87  60  83 /  40  60  20  10
SSI  78  89  67  83 /  40  70  50  20
JAX  75  91  67  86 /  30  70  50  30
SGJ  77  93  74  89 /  30  70  60  40
GNV  75  89  69  86 /  40  80  50  30
OCF  74  89  70  86 /  40  80  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-
     ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

HESS/ZIBURA/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
546 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-061000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
546 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA BEACHES DUE TO
BUILDING EASTERLY SWELLS.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
527 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FLZ022-023-GAZ150-163-164-052215-
BAKER-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COLUMBIA-WARE-
527 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WARE...SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH...WESTERN BAKER...NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA
AND CENTRAL CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

AT 527 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15
MILES WEST OF TAYLOR TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF TAYLOR...MOVING NORTH AT
40 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
TAYLOR...FARGO AND STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK THROUGH 615 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3083 8256 3084 8223 3063 8213 3014 8233
      3028 8243 3033 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 199DEG 36KT 3041 8251 3038 8239
          3025 8233

SHASHY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
618 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

GAZ150-163-052245-
CLINCH-WARE-
618 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN WARE
AND NORTHERN CLINCH COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

AT 618 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 8 MILES SOUTH OF HOMERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
HOMERVILLE...ARGYLE...MANOR AND NEEDHAM THROUGH 645 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3118 8270 3118 8267 3121 8269 3128 8265
      3115 8235 3086 8268 3092 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 209DEG 38KT 3096 8269

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
620 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

GAZ134>136-151-052245-
APPLING-BACON-PIERCE-WAYNE-
620 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE...NORTHERN PIERCE...EASTERN APPLING AND EASTERN BACON COUNTIES
FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 620 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SURRENCY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND SURRENCY THROUGH 645 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3192 8233 3190 8220 3182 8205 3148 8209
      3140 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 209DEG 39KT 3168 8224

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
620 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FLZ022-GAZ163-052300-
CLINCH-COLUMBIA-
620 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CLINCH AND NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 620 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 19 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WHITE SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND FARGO THROUGH 700 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3060 8263 3059 8258 3067 8258 3077 8253
      3069 8243 3058 8242 3058 8246 3049 8246
      3033 8257 3039 8266 3040 8264 3047 8268
      3048 8270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 209DEG 39KT 3049 8260

SHASHY

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