Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Jacksonville, FL

488 
WWUS52 KJAX 122328
SVSJAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
728 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FLC031-109-122338-
/O.CAN.KJAX.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-110812T2345Z/
ST. JOHNS FL-DUVAL FL-
728 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL AND EXTREME
NORTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

ALTHOUGH THE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXCESSIVE 
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3012 8142 3024 8158 3042 8141 3042 8140
      3039 8138 3030 8138 3021 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 293DEG 5KT 3035 8135 3019 8149

$$

SHULER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
227 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THROUGH MON...

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A BROAD SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED NEAR DUVAL COUNTY BASED ON
MSLP VALUES WILL RETROGRADE (MOVE WESTWARD) WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF PREVAILING AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL WSW FLOW AROUND THIS LOW...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE
SEA BREEZES ALL INTERACTING OVER AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GOOD CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUN. LATE SUN INTO MON
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH
A DRIER NW FLOW OVER THE LOCAL CWA. THIS WILL DECREASE POPS N-S
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SREF ADVERTISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DECREASING BELOW 1.3 INCHES ACROSS OUR GA ZONES MON AFTN.

THIS AFTN EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS OUR INLAND FL ZONES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE LINE. THIS IS WHERE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
FROM AN IMPULSE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE FOCUS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
FROM THE SEA BREEZES DURING MAX SFC BASED INSTABILITY AFTER 18Z.
IN ADDITION TO WET DOWNBURSTS...WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME HAIL REACH
THE SURFACE UNDER STRONGER CELLS GIVEN COOLING ABOVE 830 MB PER
THE 12Z JAX RAOB AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
(UPDRAFT -10 TO -20 DEG C LAYER).

SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -6 TO -7 DEG
RANGE... ALTHOUGH WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
HAZARD (IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING) GIVEN NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW. CONVECTION WILL FOCUS ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH A SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW CONVERGENCE MOST FOCUSED TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR
IN THE EARLY EVENING SAT UNDER LOW LEVEL ESE FLOW...THEN THE REGIME
SHIFTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONVERGENCE FOCUSED TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR
IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WSW.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED ON MON GIVEN
INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES DUE TO
INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO CELLS INCREASING
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND THUS THEIR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.

HOT TEMPS AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH UPPER
90S INLAND AND MID 90S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL POSITION OVER THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THROUGH FRI WITH A DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LOW LEVEL BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA WED INTO
FRI AND BRING A SHALLOW ESE FLOW REGIME. POPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ABOUT 10-20% ACROSS
SE GA AND ABOUT 20-30% ACROSS NE FL EACH AFTN. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW/MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. TSRA EXPECTED AFTER 19Z TO
20Z AT FLORIDA TERMINALS MAINLY FROM SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. WILL
MONITOR FOR PSBL STORMS NEAR SSI. HAVE MVFR VSBY FOR GNV AND VQQ
AFTER 08Z SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NOCTURNAL SURGES WITH S TO SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  30
SSI  80  88  78  91 /  20  30  20  40
JAX  77  92  76  93 /  30  30  20  40
SGJ  79  90  77  92 /  30  30  20  40
GNV  74  94  74  92 /  30  50  20  40
OCF  75  93  74  92 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/TRABERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-131000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
204 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES
WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 110 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AIR-CONDITIONING IF
POSSIBLE...REMAIN OUT OF THE SUN...AND TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU
WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZES INTERACT
WITH A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. SLOW STORM
MOTION TO THE EAST 10 MPH OR LESS WILL ENABLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PRODUCE MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORMS WILL DECREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET DOWNBURSTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
621 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FLZ023-GAZ150-164-122300-
BAKER-CHARLTON-WARE-
621 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WARE...NORTHWESTERN BAKER AND CENTRAL CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 621 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
HOMELAND TO 34 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOMELAND...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND HOMELAND
THROUGH 700 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3058 8245 3058 8242 3062 8242 3089 8218
      3089 8199 3045 8233 3049 8246 3057 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 270DEG 6KT 3083 8208 3050 8240

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
624 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

GAZ164-122315-
CHARLTON-
624 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 624 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES NORTH OF FOLKSTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3095 8190 3087 8197 3092 8210 3102 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 303DEG 5KT 3094 8201

ZAPPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
641 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CRESCENT CITY       29.44N 81.55W
08/12/2011                   PUTNAM             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            THREE LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS HUNINTON ROAD AT
            THE RAILROAD TRACKS. THE AMTRACK TRAIN HAD TO BE STOPPED
            AN THE TRACKS WERE STILL BEING CLEARED OF DEBRIS ABOUT AN
            HOUR AFTER THE EVENT OCCURRED. THE TIME OF DAMAGE WAS
            BASED ON RADAR.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W CRESCENT CITY       29.45N 81.60W
08/12/2011                   PUTNAM             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AT OLEANDER STREET AND LAKE
            MARGARET BOULEVARD.

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW GEORGETOWN        29.40N 81.65W
08/12/2011                   PUTNAM             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AT SUNSET DRIEV AND HESS ROAD.

0633 PM     HAIL             5 W FRUIT COVE          30.11N 81.70W
08/12/2011  M1.75 INCH       CLAY               FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 17 ON
            THE NORTHEND OF FLEMING ISLAND ACROSS FROM PACE ISLAND.

&&

AENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
649 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             3 NE LAKESIDE           30.16N 81.73W
08/12/2011  M1.00 INCH       CLAY               FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ALONG MOODY DRIVE NEAR
            DOCTORS LAKE.

&&

AENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
654 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND GST     CITRA                   29.41N 82.11W
08/12/2011  M55 MPH          MARION             FL   PUBLIC

&&

AENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
658 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FLZ025-122345-
DUVAL-
658 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN DUVAL
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 658 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MAYPORT TO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF UNF...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND UNF...TALBOT ISLAND...
MAYPORT...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND...FORT CAROLINE...SAN PABLO...NEPTUNE
BEACH AND JACKSONVILLE BEACH THROUGH 745 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3025 8143 3020 8144 3017 8150 3025 8162
      3049 8141 3048 8141 3043 8140 3039 8138
      3035 8139 3026 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 314DEG 4KT 3036 8140 3022 8153

SHULER