Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PWATS(>2") WILL ALLOW
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS EASTERN EXTENSION OF UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. EASTERLY FLOW WILL MEAN MAX TEMPS WILL NOT
BE AS HOT BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE VERY HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS. POPS
WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT
POPS AND TEMPS TO RETURN BACK TO NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SE GA. HAVE VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH A TEMPO FROM 18-20Z AT SSI FOR TSRA. TAFS WILL BE
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR TSRA AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE... WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH WINDS AND WAVES COMING UP SOME ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  89  74  89 /  40  70  50  60
SSI  80  86  78  85 /  40  60  50  60
JAX  76  90  76  88 /  40  60  40  60
SGJ  76  89  77  87 /  30  50  40  50
GNV  75  91  74  90 /  30  60  40  50
OCF  75  92  75  91 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZIBURA/PRESNALL/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
515 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-150930-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
515 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS REST OF
THIS WEEK...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO AROUND
105 TODAY...WITH VALUES NEARING 110 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EFFECTS
FROM THE HEAT CAN BE MINIMIZED BY REDUCING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...
DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER OR NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES...AND WEARING
LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
FOCUS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SMOKE FROM THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTHEAST
AND EAST OF THE WILDFIRE...INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES NEAR NAHUNTA...
FOLKSTON...AND WOODBINE. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 3 MILES OR
LESS AT TIMES ACROSS THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SLOW STORM MOTION AND THE COOL FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A HUMID AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO 105.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ARS

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