Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
308 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER CENTRAL GA WHILE
TROF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT S. AS A RESULT OF THE WARMING
AND DRYING ALOFT OVER GA...MOST CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
THE S 1/3 OF THE AREA. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
70S OVER THE S WITH THICK CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO THE MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND SE GA CLOSER TO THE HIGH.

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE S THRU TUE...THEN A RETURN TO MORE UNIFORM POPS THEREAFTER.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS VERY WEAK...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE OVER THE S.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA WHERE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY ALONG
WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 110...WHICH IS OUR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...STILL APPEARS THAT MOST LOCALES WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW CRITERIA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND
ZFP.

.LONG TERM...MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. 12Z GFS IS
DEVELOPING A 1011MB SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THE WEEKEND
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS A NEW TREND AND NOT INDICATED
BY ECMWF ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND HVY RAIN MOST LIKELY AT
GNV AND VQQ THIS AFTN/EVENING WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
STRONGEST. MVFR DUE TO SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AT SSI UNTIL THE SEA
BREEZE CAN BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND SHIFT FARTHER INLAND. LATER
THIS EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AND LOW CIGS AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. USED PERSISTENCE AT SSI
WHERE CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP AGAIN TO IFR DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE
SW.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  40
SSI  77  92  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
JAX  75  94  75  94 /  30  30  10  40
SGJ  75  90  76  91 /  30  40  20  40
GNV  73  93  73  93 /  30  50  20  50
OCF  73  93  74  93 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
941 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
941 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. THESE FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND FIRST AFFECT THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BEFORE NOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES DUE TO
THE SLOW STORM MOTION.

AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE IN A
FEW SPOTS AND MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION AS THE
VISIBILITY CAN VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. THE
COMBINATION OF FOG AND SMOKE MAY IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST
OF WAYCROSS TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAKING DRIVING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

SMOKE FROM THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE FIRE LOCATION IMPACTING A PORTION OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...INCLUDING WAYCROSS...NAHUNTA...JESUP...WOODBINE...AND
BRUNSWICK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN CONCERNS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...ALONG WITH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS...WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
TO NEAR AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 110 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/ABE

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