Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA LINE WITH TROF
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE THE JAX COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) COAST
TO SW GA. DRIER AIR NOTED NEAR AND N OF THE HIGH CENTER...BUT SAT
DERIVED PRECIP H2O INDICATES 2+ INCH VALUES INTO S SC. AT THE
SFC...COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED N OF THE CWA. TSTMS CONTINUE
TO FIRE IN 2 AREAS...ONE OVER THE S 1/3 IN RESPONSE TO TAIL END OF
MAIN VORT LOBE WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE ATLC. THE 2ND AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY AND A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROF OVER THE N ZONES. REGION IN BETWEEN THESE 2 AREAS HAS ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS ATTM...LIKELY DUE TO SOME WEAK NEGATIVE
VORT ADVECTION...BUT TCU ARE NOTED EVEN IN THIS AREA. EARLY AFTN
TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN RECENT RAIN AREAS TO THE LOWER 90S IN
INLAND AREAS THAT HAVE YET TO RECEIVE RAIN. DEW POINTS REMAIN
HIGH...MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.SHORT TERM...OUTFLOW FROM S CONVECTION IN CONCERT WITH ATLC
SEABREEZE SHOULD SPREAD NW AND EVENTUALLY MEET UP WITH STORMS OVER
INLAND SE GA. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. STORM
MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ERRATIC...WITH MOTION MOSTLY DOMINATED
BY OUTFLOWS. HOWEVER...TALLER STORMS SHOULD MOVE IN A MORE S TO SE
DIRECTION. DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOTION...LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES. STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
MOST INTENSE STORMS DUE TO PRECIP LOADING...BUT MOSTLY BELOW 40
MPH.

MOISTURE AXIS THAT HAS RESIDED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT S OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL DECREASE FROM THE N AND
NE. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP AREAS...TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND OVERALL INCREASING THICKNESSES...AS WELL AS
SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH
THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER OUR INTERIOR SE GA ZONES BY TUE. AS
MENTIONED BY MID SHIFT...HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 105 TO 110
RANGE OVER GA ZONES.

HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF SMOKE FOR PORTIONS OF SE GA DOWNWIND FROM
HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE OVERNIGHT. PLUME SHOULD MOSTLY HEAD TOWARD
THE NE OR E THRU THE NIGHT AFTER DISRUPTIONS THIS AFTN AND EVENING
DUE TO SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOWS.

.LONG TERM...WARMER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THU WITH
BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SE GA. HAVE
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/LIFR DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN.
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH MVFR DUE TO BR POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMAINALS...WITH FU AT SSI LIKELY BETWEEN 02-08Z WHEN LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SW. GUIDANCE INDICATES WNW WINDS BY
DAYBREAK ACROSS SE GA...SO HAVE IMPROVED VSBYS AT SSI DUE TO SMOKE
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...SSW FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE IN THE AFTN NEAR THE COAST
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS AND COMBINED SEAS
GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS...WITH SOME 4 FT HEIGHTS POSSIBLE FARTHER
OFFSHORE TOWARD THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  94  75  97 /  30  40  20  30
SSI  77  90  78  91 /  30  30  20  20
JAX  74  92  75  93 /  30  50  30  40
SGJ  75  89  76  90 /  30  50  30  40
GNV  73  91  74  93 /  30  60  30  40
OCF  73  92  74  93 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
445 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
445 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...
...AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. A DEVELOPING
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. THE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES DUE
TO THE SLOW STORM MOTION.

SMOKE FROM THE HONEY PRAIRIE WILDFIRE WILL PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE FIRE LOCATION IMPACTING A PORTION OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...INCLUDING WAYCROSS...NAHUNTA...JESUP...AND POSSIBLY
BRUNSWICK. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE AT
TIMES...AND POSSIBLY MIX WITH FOG THIS BOTH THIS MORNING AND
MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLOW
MOVING STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO REMAIN
THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS DAILY COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...ALONG WITH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES MAY POSSIBLY EXCEED 110 DEGREES IN
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011

FLZ021-102100-
SUWANNEE-
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
SUWANNEE COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 427 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIVE OAK...NEARLY
STATIONARY. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND LIVE
OAK INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH 500 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3043 8306 3043 8303 3033 8288 3017 8300
      3036 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 312DEG 2KT 3035 8302

SHULER

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