Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE N MS VALLEY. PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM MEXICO AND THE EPAC ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES. SAT DERIVED PRECIP H2O SHOWS
THIS PLUME EDGING E ALONG THE GULF COAST. SMOKE FROM THE HONEY
PRAIRIE COMPLEX IS GENERALLY SPREADING E ACROSS EXTREME SE GA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THICK SMOKE IN THE JAX METRO AREA WAS
THE RESULT OF AN ELEVATED SMOKE PLUME MIXING TO THE SFC WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. 2 PM TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
ATLC COAST TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS INLAND SE GA. THE
ATLC SEABREEZE HAS MADE IT INLAND TO NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHILE
THE GULF SEABREEZE HAS MADE A BIT MORE PROGRESS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM...SMOKE OVER EXTREME NE FL HAS THINNED A BIT OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO AND HAS ALSO SPREAD E...BUT ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MAY
PUSH OFFSHORE SMOKE BACK INLAND THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
SEABREEZE COLLISION SHOULD BE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

MODELS WEAKEN UPPER RIDGE THU AND FRI AS GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS E. MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE AND BE SITUATED
OVER AT LEAST THE NW 1/2 OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY THU AFTN.
THIS SHOULD PUSH PRECIP H20 VALUES TOWARD THE 2 INCH MARK AND LEAD
TO 50%+ TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW...
ACTIVITY SHOULD MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA TO THE ATLC COAST...ESP ON
FRI.

DUE TO FALLING THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...
MAX TEMPS WILL EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...HIGHEST LEVELS OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER N FL AND
HAVE DEPICTED HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE AREAS. POPS WILL BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND END THE PERIOD NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE STARTED TO MOVE INLAND WITH
VBSYS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY AT CRG FROM 1/2 SM PRE-SEA BREEZE TO NOW 1
SM POST SEA BREEZE. WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR THIS AFTN FOR OUR COASTAL
SITES AND MVFR AT GNV. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE
AT JAX...SSI...AND CRG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING AS WINDS
BACK AROUND TO WSW ONCE AGAIN. VCTS MOST LIKELY AT GNV AND VQQ THIS
AFTN WHERE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW MERGERS WILL FOCUS. STORMS MAY
DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT
FOR NOW JUST HAVE CB MENTIONED.

&&

.MARINE...A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 4 PM EDT FOR THE
GA COASTAL WATERS. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT DUE
TO SLY SURGE OF 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT. SSW FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE SSE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  94  71  93 /  20  50  30  40
SSI  77  92  76  89 /  10  40  40  40
JAX  73  93  72  91 /  20  50  40  50
SGJ  75  91  74  88 /  10  50  30  50
GNV  72  94  72  91 /  30  50  30  60
OCF  72  95  73  91 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUVAL-
     NASSAU.

GA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR BRANTLEY-
     CHARLTON-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN.

AM...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI/PRESNALL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

FLZ037-040-221930-
MARION-PUTNAM-
243 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PUTNAM AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 244 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
HOG VALLEY TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALT SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 5
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND FORT
MCCOY...SALT SPRINGS...ORANGE SPRINGS...INTERLACHEN...HOG VALLEY AND
GEORGETOWN THROUGH 330 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2948 8206 2950 8206 2964 8191 2958 8171
      2934 8159 2932 8167 2928 8164 2921 8164
      2915 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 201DEG 3KT 2942 8188 2926 8180

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
313 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

FLZ033-038-221945-
FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS-
313 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN ST.
JOHNS AND NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES NORTH OF ANDALUSIA...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
ANDALUSIA THROUGH 345 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2947 8150 2960 8153 2964 8152 2970 8139
      2952 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 154DEG 3KT 2957 8144

SHASHY

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