Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NW AND NORTH WITH AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
SE STATES. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHILE SLOWLY MIGRATING
WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO DIG
FURTHER SOUTH AND BRING LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY
POSSIBLE BETTER COVERAGE ON TUESDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ONSHORE/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEN ON MONDAY THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING LOW-END CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TAMPA BAY AND NORTHWARD.

BY TUESDAY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZES TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...AND
LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MORNING LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA IS GOING TO BETWEEN AN AREA OF
INDUCED TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
SEE SOME ENHANCED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE
GREATEST TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS TO BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SMOKE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND ESPECIALLY KSSI OVERNIGHT. SOME SMOKE MAY DROP FROM UPPER
LEVELS INTO THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA DURING HE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY DROPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND ALLOWING FOR SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE IN
PLACE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT
CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUN AND MON MAY SEE CRITICAL RH INLAND BUT BRIEFLY AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  96  71  96 /  30  10  20  30
SSI  74  91  76  90 /  40  20  20  10
JAX  71  95  71  92 /  30  30  20  30
SGJ  72  91  74  90 /  30  10  20  10
GNV  71  94  71  95 /  20  10  20  20
OCF  71  95  71  96 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SANDRIK/WOLF/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-171030-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
600 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...HEAT INDICES FROM 102 TO 107 THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTH
FLORIDA.

SMOKE FROM SEVERAL WILDFIRES WILL AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND
EAST OF A WAYCROSS TO LAKE CITY TO OCALA LINE. RESIDENTS WITH
RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS SHOULD CONSIDER STAYING INDOORS AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING DUE TO
A GUST FRONT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED TO BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES LATER TODAY...AND THIS MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SMOKE WILL MIX WITH FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR RECENT RAIN AREAS.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
READINGS OF 102 TO 107 ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS
SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF WORKING OR PLAYING OUTSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WHICH COULD PRODUCE WET DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
457 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E SCREVEN             31.48N 81.97W
06/16/2011                   WAYNE              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON BROADHURST
            ROAD. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 N WAYNESVILLE         31.33N 81.81W
06/16/2011                   BRANTLEY           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS
            NORTHEASTERN BRANTLEY COUNTY. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

SEP