Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
214 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 8 PM...ESPECIALLY FOR MARION COUNTY. THERE IS A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE SOUTH OF US...BUT REMEMBER A WATCH
MEANS SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. CAPES IN
THE AREA ARE AT OR ABOVE 4000 J/KG AND ANY CELLS WHICH ARE CAPABLE
OF BLOWING THROUGH THE CAP ALSO HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE.

TONIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO GEORGIA WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN GEORGIA.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AND INTO THE CENTURY MARK OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY REMAINS
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT ENOUGH GETS INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO
ENHANCE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WITH CAPES AGAIN NEARING 3-4000 J/KG AND AND A SOUTHWESTERLY 25 TO
35 KNOT LOW LEVEL FLOW WE MAY SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...LESS SYNOPTIC LEVEL CONVECTION AND MORE SEA BREEZE FRONT
LOCAL CONVECTION LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
SPLIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE SYNOPTIC DRIVEN PATTERN OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MORE LOCAL-DIURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE OVER FLORIDA. RIGHT NOW THE
LONGER TERM IS NOT LOOKING AS HOT AS WE ARE CURRENTLY BUT STILL
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD SMOKE SPREADING SWD ACRS KJAX/KVQQ/KCRG.
VSBYS IN IFR RANGE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR KJAX/KCRG AS SMOKE
PLUME SHIFTS W OF AREA AS LLVL FLOW BACKS TO N OR NE....WITH SLIGHT
FURTHER IMPROVEMENT AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SUGGESTS VSBYS MAY REMAIN AOB 5 MI THRU NGT. SMOKE SHOULD
SPREAD AWAY FROM TAF SITES EARLY TMRW...SO WENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
TMRW MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. DAILY AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE SE. MODELS SUGGEST NIGHTLY WIND SURGES WILL RESULT IN S
TO SW WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF NE FL THIS
AFTN DUE TO LOW RH'S AND HIGH DISPERSION INDEX VALUES.  SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTNS WITH INLAND MIN RH'S AT OR JUST
ABOVE 35 PCT AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DISPERSION INDEX VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71 100  71  97 /  40  20  30  20
SSI  77  89  76  92 /  10  20  40  20
JAX  72  94  72  96 /  20  20  30  10
SGJ  75  91  75  91 /  20  20  30  10
GNV  72  98  72  99 /  30  20  20  10
OCF  72  96  72  96 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SANDRIK/WOLF/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-152100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
924 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

SMOKE FROM SEVERAL WILDFIRES WILL AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A
WAYCROSS TO LAKE CITY TO OCALA LINE. RESIDENTS WITH RESPIRATORY
PROBLEMS SHOULD CONSIDER STAYING INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES AT TIMES AND
MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

AREAS OF FOG AND SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE MILE
OVER PORTIONS OF CHARLTON...NASSAU...DUVAL AND NORTHERN ST JOHNS
COUNTIES THROUGH NOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
SEABREEZES AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH WET DOWNBURSTS AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL/SANDRIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
629 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ040-152300-
MARION-
629 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 629 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT MCCOY...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
FORT MCCOY AND LYNNE THROUGH 700 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2908 8177 2912 8205 2941 8196 2939 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 008DEG 7KT 2931 8187

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
714 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ021-022-160000-
COLUMBIA-SUWANNEE-
714 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
COLUMBIA AND CENTRAL SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 714 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF NEWBURN TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF WELLBORN...MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
NEWBURN...LIVE OAK...HOUSTON...DOWLING PARK...WELLBORN...LURAVILLE
AND MCALPIN THROUGH 800 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. THESE
STORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAK ROTATION. REMEMBER TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP FROM THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3030 8324 3034 8279 3032 8279 3032 8275
      3033 8273 3008 8270 3005 8305 3010 8312
      3010 8321 3012 8323 3014 8323 3018 8325
      3025 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 344DEG 9KT 3022 8315 3024 8279

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
725 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ022-160015-
COLUMBIA-
725 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
COLUMBIA COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 725 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER COLUMBIA COUNTY...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
FARGO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3060 8266 3059 8254 3059 8253 3049 8245
      3044 8246 3042 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 321DEG 7KT 3054 8259

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
734 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ022-030-160015-
COLUMBIA-UNION-
734 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA AND WESTERN UNION COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 735 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WATERTOWN TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF LULU...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WATERTOWN...
LULU AND DUKES THROUGH 815 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3021 8264 3023 8246 3014 8246 3014 8239
      2998 8234 2993 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 326DEG 6KT 3016 8254 3004 8250

ENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
749 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             1 WNW SILVER SPRINGS SH 29.11N 82.02W
06/15/2011  E0.75 INCH       MARION             FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC CALLED IN A REPORT OF DIME SIZED HAIL IN SILVER
            SPRINGS SHORES.

&&

SEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
753 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FLZ031-036-040-160100-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-MARION-
753 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
BRADFORD...EASTERN ALACHUA AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 753 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF
BROOKER TO 3 MILES EAST OF SPARR...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SPARR...ROCHELLE...
REDDICK...NEWNANS LAKE...MICANOPY...MCINTOSH...LOWELL...LA CROSSE...
GAINESVILLE AIRPORT AND GAINESVILLE THROUGH 900 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2993 8254 2994 8253 2995 8251 2993 8247
      2993 8236 2996 8234 2995 8231 3000 8227
      2957 8205 2947 8206 2950 8201 2933 8193
      2929 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 278DEG 4KT 2985 8235 2934 8205

ENYEDI