Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
211 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

...HEAT AND SMOKE HIGHLIGHT OUR WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

.SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU WED NGT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SEVERAL SMOKE PLUMES ACROSS FAR SE GA AND NE FL...WITH
SMOKE SPREADING E TO SE. AREAS AFFECTED BY SMOKE TODAY LIKELY TO
SEE IT AGAIN TUE AND WED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN W TO NW LLVL FLOW.

MODEL GUID CONTINUES TO SUGGEST HIGH 1000-850 MB TEMP/THICKNESS
VALUES ACRS FAR SRN GA AND NRN FL SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS NEAR 100
DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE MORE IN WAY OF E COAST SEA BREEZE
INTRUSION BY WED AFTN...AND ALSO INDICATE SLIGHT COOLING OF
850-925MB TEMPS SCTRL GA...BUT TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREA
WIDE. LLVL TEMPS/THICKNESSES SUPPORT 100 DEG JAX AREA TUE/WED...
BUT SMOKE AND E COAST SEA BREEZE (ESP WED AFTN) MAY KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW. MODELS SUGGEST HIGHER TEMP/THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORTING NEAR 100 DEG TEMPS GNV/OCF AREAS TUE/WED. WILL INDICATE
'NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS' IN FCST FOR TMRW.

SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER AREA TNGT...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PCPN THRU THE NGT SRN AREAS DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT. SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER SRN AREAS TUE...AND
CONFINING LOW POPS TO SRN HALF OF FCST AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
FOR WED INTERIOR PORTION OF NE FL AS MODELS SUGGEST BETTER
COVERAGE GIVEN SEA BREEZE INTERSECTION LAKE CITY-GNV-OCF CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...THU THRU MON...MODEL GUID MAINTAINS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THRU WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST MORE ERN SEA BREEZE INTERSECTION LATE
THU...SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA. WILL
MAINAIN LOW POPS THRU WEEKEND MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
LOWER IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES
CONTINUE TO BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR VALUES...AND LOCALLY BELOW 3 MILES
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF FIRE LOCATIONS. FOR OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A BIG ISSUE AS WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...THOUGH SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT VISIBILITIES IN AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF
FIRES.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RESTRICTED VISIBILITES
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SMOKE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTERIOR
NORTH FLORIDA AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX
OUT PRODUCING EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW RH'S...AND ERC'S APPROACHING 40.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  97  71  99 /  10  10  10  20
SSI  74  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  20
JAX  73  98  72  98 /  20  10  10  20
SGJ  75  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  72 100  73 100 /  20  20  10  30
OCF  71  99  73  99 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COLUMBIA-
     HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-
     HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-BRADFORD.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/LETRO/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-140915-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
512 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODIC
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE FIRES.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

LS

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