Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SEVERE TSTM WATCH NUMBER 68 EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE GA
AND ADJACENT NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS...

.SYNOPSIS...TSTMS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR S OF QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT OVER S CENTRAL GA. 2000+ J/KG CAPES AND HIGH BULK SHEAR
ALLOWING FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS. HAVE EXPANDED EXISTING SVR TSTM WATCH #68 TO THE COAST
AND NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS IN SE GA.

.SHORT TERM...HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF
HIGHEST POPS OVER SE GA THRU THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL MENTIONED IN ZONES. WILL UPDATE HWO SHORTLY FOR WATCH
EXPANSION.

NAM INDICATING MORE S PUSH WITH COLD AIR BEHIND FRONT FOR
MON...AND HAVE LEANED MORE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH COOLER TEMPS
ESPECIALLY FOR SE GA AND COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME NE FL. LATER
SHIFTS CAN ADJUST FURTHER IF NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...HAVE LEFT THE EXTENDED FORECAST NEARLY UNCHANGED. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR FORECAST LOWS FRI THRU SUN...AND WILL NEED TO SEE IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SSI MOST LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. HAVE VCTS IN NE FL TAFS ALSO.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME NE LATE TONIGHT OVER GA WATERS
AND MONDAY OVER NE FL WATERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE COAST.
USED NAM12 WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS WITH FRONTAL
POSITION. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE...WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS OF NE FL DUE TO RH'S
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  69  49  70 /  60  40  20  20
SSI  60  67  53  67 /  40  40  20  20
JAX  62  75  55  71 /  40  50  30  20
SGJ  64  74  59  71 /  40  60  30  30
GNV  62  79  58  76 /  50  70  30  20
OCF  62  80  61  79 /  50  70  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ST. JOHNS-FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM-ALACHUA
     TIL 7 PM EDT.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/ZIBURA/SHULER/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-281000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
230 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 68 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY...
...AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
AND HAIL OVER ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED
FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO SEVERAL
ONGOING WILDFIRES. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW THE SMOKE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND VARIABLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY AT TIMES PUSH THE SMOKE IN OTHER DIRECTIONS.
USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS VISIBILITIES
MAY BE REDUCED. REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES COMING IN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN THE WATCH AREA WITH
SELF-ACTIVATION REQUESTED IN EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP/SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

GAZ163-271930-
CLINCH-
240 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CLINCH COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 241 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 19 MILES WEST OF HOMERVILLE...OR 4 MILES
NORTH OF LAKELAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND HOMERVILLE...COGDELL AND ARGYLE THROUGH
330 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3118 8297 3118 8267 3098 8257 3100 8297
      3117 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 268DEG 28KT 3110 8303

SHULER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

GAZ153-154-272000-
COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND GLYNN-
315 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GLYNN
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 315 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF THALMANN...OR 15
MILES NORTHWEST OF DOCK JUNCTION...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND THALMANN...EVERETT AND
BOYS ESTATE THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3122 8144 3129 8173 3133 8172 3136 8169
      3139 8170 3141 8158 3138 8154 3133 8144
      3132 8143 3132 8141 3130 8140 3132 8138
      3132 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 273DEG 22KT 3133 8170

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

GAZ134>136-272030-
APPLING-BACON-WAYNE-
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
WAYNE...CENTRAL APPLING AND NORTHERN BACON COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 344 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF
SURRENCY TO 19 MILES WEST OF SURRENCY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SURRENCY THROUGH
430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3179 8199 3179 8196 3176 8193 3176 8191
      3174 8190 3173 8190 3161 8254 3167 8256
      3167 8252 3172 8251 3182 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 262DEG 30KT 3173 8203 3168 8239

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
347 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

GAZ132-133-272030-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
347 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN COFFEE
AND WESTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 347 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 16 MILES WEST OF PRIDGEN...OR 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FITZGERALD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PRIDGEN...SNIPESVILLE AND
DENTON THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3166 8262 3165 8263 3161 8305 3165 8302
      3167 8300 3177 8301 3179 8298 3180 8296
      3179 8287 3183 8280 3187 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 262DEG 32KT 3168 8314

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

GAZ163-272045-
CLINCH-
354 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL CLINCH
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 18 MILES WEST OF DU PONT...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF VALDOSTA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND DU PONT AND HOMERVILLE
THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3098 8297 3102 8297 3102 8294 3106 8262
      3086 8257 3085 8291 3087 8296 3087 8298
      3097 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 264DEG 33KT 3091 8307

ZAPPE