Red Flag Warning 32, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 AM EDT SUN MAY 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER SUNNY TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WEAK
WAVES OF ENERGY PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THIS
REGION. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE FIRE OVER SOUTHERN WARE COUNTY IN GA
WILL PRODUCE SMOKE THAT WILL AFFECT SURROUNDING COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AT TIMES INHIBITING
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON...A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW WEAK
IMPULSES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW AND INTO FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK SOUTHEAST MOVING SURFACE TROUGH AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE PRESENT COUPLED
WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
READINGS HEADING INTO THE 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE LARGELY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A MINIMA
IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING A MORE WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH A ANOTHER FRONT PROGGED OVER
THE WEEKEND. AFTER SEVERAL MORE DAYS IN THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...USED LATEST HYSPLIT DATA TO PIN DOWN SMOKE VSBY
REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND FAVORABLE SEAS...WITH INCREASING
SWELL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED EXISTING FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AROUND 6 HOURS OF SUB-35
PERCENT RH COUPLED WITH ERC VALUES RIGHT AROUND 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  62  91  64 /   0  10  20  10
SSI  85  67  87  68 /   0  10  20  10
JAX  89  63  91  66 /   0   0  20  10
SGJ  85  65  88  67 /   0   0  20  20
GNV  89  61  91  65 /   0   0  20  20
OCF  88  60  92  65 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM TODAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

STRUBLE/CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-080915-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
838 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A LARGE WILDFIRE CONTINUES TO BURN SOUTHWEST OF STEVEN FOSTER STATE
PARK...WITH SMOKE IMPACTING EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING
NEAR THESE AREAS AS VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD OCCUR. PERIODIC ROAD
CLOSURES MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE FIRE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

LS/MKT