Frost Advisory 5, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EST THU NOV 10 2011

...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...FREEZE WATCH INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST...

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE JAX CWA THIS
AFTERNOON TRAILED BY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROGRESS GRADUALLY
SSE ACROSS OUR EASTERN GA ZONES AND NE FL ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TRAILING THE
SFC FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POPS DECREASING BELOW 10% BY
04Z. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES INLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AREAS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR STRONGER LAND BASED GUSTS TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG
PRESSURE RISES FOLLOWING THE FROPA. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MIXING...
STRONG CAA WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 5
TO 10 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS NEAR FREEZING INLAND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRI...BRISK AND SUNNY WX EXPECTED AS HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES UNDER A
COLD NW FLOW. FRI NIGHT...WINDS DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE CENTER
BUILDS OVERHEAD AND COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET TO NEAR FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT INLAND. HAVE
ISSUED OUR SEASONS FIRST FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS FRI
NIGHT. MAY NEED LATER SHIFTS TO INCLUDE CLAY/PUTNAM COUNTIES...BUT
AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT JUST ENOUGH NNE FLOW MAY PREVENT
EXTENDED DURATION OF FREEZING TEMPS SAT MORNING. ELSEWHERE...FREEZING
TEMPS NEAR 30 DEG ARE EXPECTED FOR 4-6 HRS SAT MORNING WITH MID
20S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER LOCALES. WIDESPREAD TO AREAS OF
FROST ARE LIKELY SAT MORNING...AND FOR THOSE LOCATIONS NOT UNDER A
FREEZE WARNING (POSSIBLE CLAY AND PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR EXAMPLE)...A
FROST ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.

SAT AND SUN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPS. SAT HIGHS WILL NEAR 70 DEG.
MINS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING IN THE 40S TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S INLAND
ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH HIGHS SUN WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND.

.LONG TERM...STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK
WITH SSW FLOW DEVELOPING LOCALLY MON. MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE EACH DAY AS TEMPS MODERATE. HIGHS RISE
INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH WED...WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE
50S AND LOW 60S. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE ADVERTISED A WEAKENING SFC
TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE SE REGION LATE WED...THEN THE BOUNDARY
BECOMING BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE THU WHICH SHIFTS THE TROUGH
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THIS SCENARIO AND CONTINUE WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20% LATE TUE
INTO THU. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN THU WITH FROPA AND WILL ADVERTISE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S SE GA TO LOW 70S NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW TEMPO MVFR CIGS WITH SPRINKLES AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FOLLOWING
FROPA THEN POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE 03Z-15Z TIME
FRAME AS 950MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40 KNOTS AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS
IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND EXPECT WITH WARM WATER STILL IN PLACE
OFFSHORE SOME OF THE 35-40 LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX DOWN IN GUSTS TO
ALLOW FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
NEARSHORE LEG. WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY WITH NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL.

RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND EXPECT HIGH SURF AND
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO END THIS EVENING AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
EXPECT MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO 10G15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO EXPECT TO FALL SHORT OF THE REQUIRED WIND CRITERIA FOR RED
FLAG WARNINGS...BUT MID SHIFT WILL LIKELY ISSUE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS. ON SATURDAY...INLAND
AREAS OF SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WILL BOTTOM OUT ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 20-30% RH RANGE BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING AT 5-10 MPH DO
NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  35  61  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  44  60  38  65 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  40  60  34  69 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  46  60  43  68 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  39  62  31  72 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  39  63  35  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     DUVAL-NASSAU.

     RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-
     ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-
     WAYNE.

     RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

ENYEDI/HESS/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EST THU NOV 10 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-110930-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
300 PM EST THU NOV 10 2011

...HIGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES TODAY...

...GALE WARNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT...

...WIND CHILLS NEAR FREEZING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LINGERING SWELLS FROM LOCAL NOR'EASTER EVENT AND TROPICAL STORM SEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL
BEACHES TODAY IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF WITH
BREAKERS IN THE 5 TO 7 FEET RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND USHER IN MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S
TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND
WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
NEAR 30 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN AREAS THAT DO NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS/JCH