Frost Advisory 2, NWS Jacksonville, FL

754 
WWUS72 KJAX 281257 AAA
NPWJAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
757 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2011

FLZ020>023-030-031-035-036-040-281400-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110128T1300Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-
MARION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JASPER...LIVE OAK...LAKE CITY...
MACCLENNY...LAKE BUTLER...STARKE...TRENTON...GAINESVILLE...OCALA
757 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2011

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. A SHARP CLEARING LINE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL
ARRIVE IN SE GA LATE IN THE EVENING AND THEN PRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. NORTHWEST WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE.
BETWEEN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS ARE MODERATE AT BEST. MOS NUMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. A BLEND YIELDS TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT. NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY
BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AT FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE...NOT LONG ENOUGH OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FREEZE WARNING. AREAS OF FROST WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BOTH BE VERY NICE DAYS AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS WILL GO FROM LOW TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY TO MID TO UPPER
60S...EVEN A FEW 70S...ON SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH WIND GUSTS UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IS PROVING TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SHOWS THE WAVE GETTING LARGELY
SHEARED OUT AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST IN OUR DIRECTION. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH SLOWER TO WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE. AS A
RESULT...IT IS SLOWER WITH THE TIMING AND INDICATES BETTER
FORCING FOR LIFT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SOLUTION IS
PREFERABLE. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GET HUNG UP ACROSS SE GA ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE IS COMING IN A
BIT WARMER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO
SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS TRACKS A SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TO UPSTATE SC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER
EAST...PLACING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE SC COASTLINE. PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY FOR DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE OF SOLUTIONS PLACES THE FRONT
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS WOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO CLIP OUR SE GA
ZONES BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS TO ABOUT
30 PERCENT AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE MODELS COME
INTO MORE AGREEMENT. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW PULLS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF GRADUALLY INCREASING THE POPS...NOW
TAKING IT UP TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

LARGE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON HOW QUICK TO MOVE THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH IT...WHERE
THE GFS SHOWS IT BOGGING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
UNTIL A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH PUSHES IT SOUTH. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES DURING THIS PERIOD DUE THE UNCERTAINTY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FORECAST. CLOUDS IN THE 20-25 KFT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATER TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING SE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. MARGINAL LLWS FCST TO IMPACT SSI AT TIMES
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL NECESSITATE AN SCEC
OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT. WINDS CONT ELEVATED AS
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THEN DECREASES BY EARLY SAT AND INTO
SUN. LIGHT WIND REGIME SUN-MON AS FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED VALUES TO 30-35%...WITH
WINDS NEAR 10-15 MPH. A MARGINAL RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GOOD CHANCE OF RED FLAGS ANTICIPATED ON
FRI AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTY WITH RH VALUES DOWN
TO 30-35% AGAIN SO WILL HOIST A FIRE WX WATCH ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  63  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  39  61  42  64 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  34  64  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  38  62  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  33  64  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  35  65  40  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COLUMBIA-
     HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/SHASHY/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
807 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-281030-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
807 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.