Freeze Warning 11, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
226 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

...PLEASANT TODAY WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL...
...DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...

.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
60S MOST AREAS WITH ATLC SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH NO SENSIBLE WX AFFECTS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF CEDAR KEY AT 19Z.

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL CONT TO SHIFT S OF THE AREA
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS
AGAIN SHOULD PLUMMET QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A FREEZE EXPECTED
OVER INLAND NE FL FOR UP TO 4 HRS SO WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A
WARNING AND ALSO INCLUDE BAKER AND BRADFORD COUNTIES WHERE FREEZE
DURATIONS OF ABOUT 2 HRS ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND A STRONG
RADIATION INVERSION.

MONDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BE S AND SW OF THE FORECAST AREA PROMOTING
A WLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HEAD INTO SE CONUS LATE IN THE DAY AS A LOW PRES
AND ITS COLD FRONT SHIFT INTO THE NE AND ERN U.S. WLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
SE GA. MON NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SWD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH LLVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM NW TO NE. NOT AS COOL WITH MINS TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

TUE...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER SC/NC AND ERN GA
RESULTING IN NELY FLOW AND WILL THEREFORE SLOW THE WARMING
TREND...ESP FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS INLAND EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT COASTAL LOCALES QUITE DIFFERENT IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH A NELY WIND OF ABOUT 15 MPH AND GUSTY AT TIMES.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...LLVL FLOW VEERS A BIT AND MOISTENS AS THE 850
MB HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE SEWD AND OFFSHORE WITH SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GFS APPEARS TO MOISTEN LLVLS
TOO QUICKLY BUT NAM ALSO SHOWS MEAN RH VALUES THROUGH 850 MB RISING
TO 80% OR BETTER BY WED MORNING OVER NE FL. GIVEN THIS WILL CONT TO
MENTION ISOLD SHOWERS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY WED. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE 15-20% RAIN
PROBABILITIES JUST OFF THE COAST. PREFER COOLER MOS LOWS FOR TUE
NIGHT BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND USED A BLEND OF MOS FOR WED
HIGHS. WED NIGHT...PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY AS LLVL
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED IN CURRENT GUIDANCE. POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT
10% ATTM.

.LONG TERM...THU-SUN.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THU-SAT SHOWING MEAN LAYER
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS KEEPING
OUR FORECAST AREA IN RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDS. MEAN LAYER TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE TOP OF THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO
THE TN VALLEY AREA WITH ASSOCD WEAK COLD FRONT PRESSING INTO OUR
AREA SAT/SAT NIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE VALUES AND WEAK FORCING WOULD
SEEM TO INDICATE ONLY SILENT POPS AT THIS TIME. MID/UPPER RIDGING
MAY BUILD BACK OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUN.
S TO SW LLVL FLOW THU-SAT WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH 80 READINGS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
40S TO THE MID 50S. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS
WED-FRI BASED ON GFE FOG TOOLS AND INCREASING CROSSOVER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW...WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF A DRY BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE
TOWARDS ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE SE GA OFFSHORE ZONE. A LIGHTER
FLOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS VERIFYING QUITE NICELY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
TODAY. RFW REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW...MAX TEMPS AROUND 70 WILL COMBINE WITH LINGERING DRY
AIR TO SET THE STAGE FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH DURATIONS OF 4-6 HOURS
AND MIN RH VALUES OF 25-30%. FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN SE
GA TOMORROW. MODELS REMAIN MIXED ON WIND GUST COMPONENT...WITH
THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST. CONFIDENCE GRIDS INDICATE VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 25 MPH...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH APPEAR UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  69  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  41  65  44  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  35  70  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  39  68  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  31  69  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  30  69  39  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/SHULER/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
820 AM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141015-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
820 AM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT FOR THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH
FLORIDA...

A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WINDS WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/SHASHY