Tornado Warning 164, NWS Jackson, MS

493 
WWUS54 KJAN 140135
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
835 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSC103-159-140200-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0164.000000T0000Z-110514T0200Z/
NOXUBEE MS-WINSTON MS-
835 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
WINSTON AND WEST CENTRAL NOXUBEE COUNTIES...

AT 834 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS 
TORNADO WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF LOUISVILLE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MASHULAVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8915 3313 8908 3316 8901 3314 8868
      3296 8872 3304 8918
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 276DEG 33KT 3311 8896

$$

40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER
ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LITTLE OR NO PCPN WAS NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 55 SO HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ITS BACK WATER AREAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING. THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A GUST TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT IS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE CLOSE LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT A LAYER OF STRATOCU IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE SHORT TERM FROM
TONIGHT ON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS WELL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST DECENT INSOLATION IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW SITES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAKE IT ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S. THESE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A NORTH WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RESULTING IN A FINE SPRING DAY. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
THE CLOSED LOW WILL STILL BE SPINNING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WHEN A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY AND ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
SUNDAY SHOULD TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST MISSISSIPPI. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAV WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED. GUIDANCE POPS WERE CUT
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. /22/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY...STRONGER CAA TAKES
PLACE WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING DOWN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 DEGREES UNDER
STRONGER NORTH LOW-LVL FLOW AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATES ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING LIMITED
INSOLATION GIVEN CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS DECK...SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S EXCEPT FOR SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY MORNING COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS CLOUDS
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BUT SHOW
ENOUGH AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO
NOSE IN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S AFTER REDUCING MEX GUIDANCE
AND USING LOW END MENMOS VALUES GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A SLOWLY MODIFYING AND
WARMING AIRMASS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RETURN FLOW COULD
HAPPEN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP IN TO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK(FRIDAY)...THE OPS GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF
IN RESOLVING A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT ALLOWS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND POTENTIALLY
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING THE POTENT MID-LVL TROUGHING
MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN GIVEN THAT IT HAS RESOLVED
THE EASTERN CONUS CUT-OFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER...THUS POSSIBLY CREATING MORE MID- TO UPPER-LVL BLOCKING
AND THUS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS OPS GFS. HAVE OPTED TO PLAY THE
MIDDLE ROAD AT THIS STAGE AND REDUCED MEX POPS FOR FRIDAY GIVEN GFS
BIASED NATURE OF BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE./ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED BRINGING WITH IT BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  75  53  73 /  23   4   5   3
MERIDIAN      56  75  53  75 /  36   6   7   5
VICKSBURG     56  75  49  72 /  13   4   3   3
HATTIESBURG   61  81  54  78 /  27   4   2   3
NATCHEZ       57  75  50  73 /  13   3   2   3
GREENVILLE    56  73  51  70 /  18   6   9   5
GREENWOOD     56  73  51  70 /  27   8   8   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/ALLEN/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ026>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-072>074-142045-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO COLUMBIA.
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063-142045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             STRATTON                32.50N 89.13W
05/13/2011  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING REPORTED ACCORDING TO
            WTOK

&&

BBRYANT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ050-132355-
SCOTT MS-
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF STEELE AT 626 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3235 8932 3234 8950 3252 8952 3252 8951
      3255 8932 3240 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 265DEG 20KT 3244 8940

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
704 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ063-064-072-140035-
MARION MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
704 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF ARM AT 705 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3137 9008 3155 9010 3159 8970 3158 8969
      3156 8961 3153 8959 3144 8958 3143 8965
      3136 8966
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 267DEG 20KT 3147 8998

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
713 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ049-050-140100-
RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-
713 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF PELAHATCHIE AT 713 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN SCOTT AND EAST CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3223 8970 3221 8973 3221 8993 3239 8994
      3246 8939 3223 8936
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 265DEG 21KT 3231 8983

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             GOSS                    31.36N 89.89W
05/13/2011  E1.75 INCH       MARION             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
818 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             5 SE GOSS               31.30N 89.83W
05/13/2011  E1.75 INCH       MARION             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL HAIL WAS REPORTED ON DELANCY ROBBINS ROAD.

&&

JFAIRLY