Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

DISORGANIZED...EASTWARD MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MONTROSE AR TO ALEXANDRIA LA AT
THIS TIME. VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY THUS FAR AS
CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO OUTRUN SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
BETTER FORCING OVER EAST TX. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR
PROFILES WARRANT A CONTINUED MENTION OF STRONG/LOW END SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
MAIN RISK CONTINUES TO BE 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS...AND MAYBE A
TORNADO. NO CHANGES TO HWO/GRAPHICS PLANNED.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO AL AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH TRAILING
STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUING OVER AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-55 THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS EARLY SUN WILL STILL BE
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN AR KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-55. FROM THERE THE FOCUS OF
THE FORECAST SHIFTS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH THAT THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY SETTLED ON. DIFFERENCES IN
INTENSITY/EVOLUTION OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE NOT
TOO GREAT GIVING A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUE THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE.

IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MS...LIFTING INTO THE EASTERN TN
VALLEY TUE. ARKLAMISS TEMP PROFILES ARE GOING TO PLUMMET AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS...WITH SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPS SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN
ZONES MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUE MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
VICINITY OF THE LOW WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ITS VERY
POSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES OF SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN OVER AREAS NORTH
OF I-20 BOTH MON AND TUE MORNING.

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GFS MOS TEMPS WERE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL SEVERELY LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING POTENTIAL MONDAY AND LOWERED TEMPS AT SEVERAL SITES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES. LOWS TUE MORNING WERE
RAISED TOWARD THE WARMER NAM GUIDANCE AS WINDS/CLOUD COVER LIMIT
OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL. /BK/

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS THE LAST OF THE LIGHT RAIN DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH WAS AGREED BY THE EURO AND
GFS. IT WILL PUSH A POCKET OF COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING CLOSED LOW FROM TUESDAY. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR COOL PATTERN CONTINUES.
SO OUR COOL DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WE WILL BE IN A COOL PATTERN. TUESDAY
MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO EURO GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S. OTHERWISE WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF ENSEMBLES...
MEX AND GMOS GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAF CYCLE)...

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS NAM...LOCAL/NATIONAL WRF AND RUC
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON GENERAL IDEA OF SITUATION ACROSS AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE A FEW HOURS TOO SLOW ON EVOLUTION. THUS HAVE
UTILIZED THESE MODELS FOR 18Z TAFS WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING
ACCORDINGLY. LOW CEILINGS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED TO THIS POINT CROSS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WALK OUTSIDE SHOWS LOWER SC BEGINNING TO ARRIVE AT
KJAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AREA OF SHRA INVADING FROM THE SW. EXPECT
THAT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE THIS AFTERNOON AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KGTR AND/OR KGWO ALONG WITH KJAN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED IMPRESSIVE MIXING AT KGWO/KGLH
WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST AND
HAVE BUMPED UP SOME IN NEW TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OTHERWISE LOCAL WRF SHOWS BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
NW LA PROGRESSING W TO E ACROSS TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH SOME
RISK OF 35 TO 45 KT GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SITES. SPED
THE TIMING UP OVER THE HIRES MODELS WHICH BRINGS IT INTO KJAN AROUND
03Z. ONCE BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WSW SFC WINDS
UNTIL ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH A FEW HOURS LATER. WE SHOULD BE
GETTING INTO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AFTER FROPA CONSIDERING AMERICAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD INTERNATIONAL MODELS IN SHOWING DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE NW AT
10-15 KT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  52  38  45 / 100  65  36  39
MERIDIAN      60  59  41  46 / 100  90  49  59
VICKSBURG     48  50  35  47 /  97  48  20  21
HATTIESBURG   61  58  40  50 /  92  71  32  24
NATCHEZ       47  50  33  47 /  94  34  20  11
GREENVILLE    48  48  35  44 /  99  66  46  34
GREENWOOD     52  51  36  43 / 100  82  60  55

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BK/AG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
205 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-027-034>037-
040>044-047>066-072>074-271600-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON
DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
205 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A BAND OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT A TORNADO COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM...BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 8 AND 11 PM...AND BE OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...COULD BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MSZ026-028>033-038-039-045-046-271600-
GRENADA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
205 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 8 AND 11 PM...AND BE
OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

08

LAZ016-023-025-262255-
TENSAS LA-FRANKLIN LA-MADISON LA-
425 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF WINNSBORO TO 21 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JIGGER AT 425 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN MADISON...FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN TENSAS PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3210 9188 3215 9190 3218 9183 3225 9177
      3233 9177 3233 9172 3240 9163 3240 9149
      3245 9148 3247 9128 3190 9143 3184 9157
      3197 9160 3197 9164 3189 9171 3187 9178
      3191 9180 3198 9190 3208 9193
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 220DEG 26KT 3222 9169 3179 9191

JA

LAZ024-026-262335-
CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
507 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
507 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER WILDSVILLE AT 507 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CATAHOULA AND NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3193 9160 3189 9160 3188 9158 3187 9158
      3186 9157 3180 9158 3175 9154 3175 9141
      3161 9153 3143 9178 3167 9194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 226DEG 33KT 3162 9179

JA

LAZ025-MSZ053-059>061-270025-
ADAMS MS-JEFFERSON MS-FRANKLIN MS-CLAIBORNE MS-TENSAS LA-
554 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
554 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF WATERPROOF TO 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SIBLEY AT 554 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN CLAIBORNE...WESTERN FRANKLIN...WESTERN JEFFERSON
AND ADAMS COUNTIES...AND SOUTHEASTERN TENSAS PARISH SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3124 9156 3129 9151 3137 9152 3137 9147
      3143 9151 3153 9148 3157 9140 3160 9142
      3159 9146 3163 9140 3175 9138 3176 9142
      3191 9138 3207 9095 3132 9109 3137 9122
      3131 9146 3123 9148 3121 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 246DEG 24KT 3186 9129 3124 9146

BK

MSZ040-042-047-270045-
WARREN MS-ISSAQUENA MS-YAZOO MS-
615 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
615 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF OAK RIDGE AT 615 PM CST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN YAZOO...SOUTHEASTERN ISSAQUENA AND
NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3268 9070 3268 9069 3266 9068 3269 9066
      3270 9068 3281 9055 3267 9037 3242 9071
      3255 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 226DEG 33KT 3255 9070

JA

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