Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1042 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

.UPDATE...MAIN BAND OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSRA APPROACHING THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT STILL LAGGING ALONG A KLIT-
KELD-KIAH LINE. GUSTY WINDS ALONG SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE ONSET OF THE LEADING EDGE OF RAIN...MLCAPES PROGGED TO REACH
AS HIGH AS 1200J/KG 1-4PM OVER SERN MS SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE HOWEVER ALREADY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SHORT-
CHANGING THE POTENTIAL A BIT. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A DECENT
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BEST
STORMS ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND DEPARTING ERN MS BY 02-04Z THIS EVENING. BASICALLY...WE STILL
HAVE A LOW-END RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LOCATIONS SE OF NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY. HEAVY RAINS OF 1-2 INCHES LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
EVERYONE SHOULD BENEFIT WITH SOME QPF. IN ADDITION...A MINOR WAKE-
LOW DRIVEN WIND EVENT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER THE DELTA REGION
WITH SE WINDS 30-40MPH AT KGLH PAST HOUR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THOSE
AREAS CLOSELY FOR ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING.

HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS OVER THE DELTA AND PROGRESSED THE RAIN-COOLED
AIR A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. UPDATES
SHOULD BE POSTED./40/

&&

.AVIATION...EASTWARD ADVANCING LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS GENERALLY
ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE PKWY ATTM...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF MS BY EARLY EVENING. CAUTION IS STRONGLY ADVISED INVOF OF THE
LINE WHERE STRONG TURB/LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED. CONDS WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR AHEAD OF THE LINE...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AND REMAINING
MVFR/VFR BEHIND THE LINE. THIS EVENING/OVRNGT...MVFR CONDS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL AT LEAST THRU 03Z BEFORE IFR CIGS BECOME AN ISSUE THRU
14Z TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SE UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES WHEN NE WINDS ARE XPCTD. /BK/

&&

PREVIOUSLY FOR TONIGHT...NWLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST RAINFALL ENDED BY THEN. HEALTHY
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR
COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AND SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.

INCREASED POPS OVER MAV MOS FOR TODAY AND IN THE SE FOR TONIGHT.
ALSO LOWERED HIGHS FOR EXTREME NWRN ZONES TODAY IN LIGHT OF A
DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD. FOLLOWED SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR TONIGHT
FOR CENTRAL/SERN ZONES./03/

LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK
RATHER PLEASANT FOR THANKSGIVING FESTIVITIES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN AT THE SURFACE. DRY...SUNNY...AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING AS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND WILL BE OFF
TO OUR EAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC WILL ALSO MOVE OFF MORE TO THE EAST AND LEAVE THE ARKLAMISS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE AND THUS RESUMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF. CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS
ON FRIDAY AS READINGS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. MEANWHILE...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BY 18Z FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS RUNS AND THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES THAT
TREND...UP TO A POINT. LAST NIGHT THE ECMWF WAS CUTTING OFF THE LOW
WELL TO OUR WEST AND HAS SINCE SHIFTED TO KEEPING THE OPEN TROUGH
AND MOVING IT NEAR AND THROUGH OUR REGION. THE ECMWF IS JUST A TAD
SLOWER THAN THE GFS BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE ONLY TALKING A MATTER
OF MAYBE 50 MILES OR SO. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A SFC LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MODELS DONT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WOULD ENTER THE DELTA AROUND 18Z
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...EXITING BY 12Z SUNDAY. HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS START
TO DIVERGE AGAIN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES THE SYSTEM THROUGH TO THE EAST
COAST AND BRINGS BROAD RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW TO OUR REGION. THE GFS
HOWEVER CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW AND SPINS IT GENERALLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI/WESTERN TENNESSEE/WEST KENTUCKY REGION. GIVEN COLDER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW...THE FAR NORTHERN THIRD(OR EVEN JUST NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR) COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A COLD LIGHT RAIN OR A MIXTURE
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BASED ON GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR GTR AND GWO.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN BOTH MODEL TIMING AND
DEPICTION...WILL OPT NOT TO INCLUDE ANY WINTER WORDING AND SEE HOW
TRENDS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. ONE THING SEEMS TO BE RATHER CERTAIN IS
THAT WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS WE CLOSE OUT
NOVEMBER AND HEAD INTO DECEMBER. READINGS WILL BE IN THE 50S NORTH
AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S
WITH A FEW NIGHTS LIKELY SEEING FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING LOWS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  50  66  42 /  90  43   0   0
MERIDIAN      81  50  69  41 /  70  65   1   0
VICKSBURG     74  48  65  39 /  93  28   0   0
HATTIESBURG   82  55  71  44 /  70  70   4   0
NATCHEZ       79  51  66  43 /  91  34   0   0
GREENVILLE    68  47  63  41 /  82  13   0   0
GREENWOOD     72  45  62  41 /  89  23   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

MSZ029>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-231700-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING....GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. THE BEST WINDOW
FOR SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS BUT LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA
AROUND NOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT
STRONG WIND SHEAR AND UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>042-047-231700-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
1052 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHWEST AND WEST PORTION OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
100 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAGEE                   31.87N 89.73W
11/22/2011                   SIMPSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED AT MAGEE CITY PARK

&&

DL

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