Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR...

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) PERSISTENT STRATUS
DECK E OF A GRENADA-HATTIESBURG LINE ACTING LIKE A PSEUDO WARM FRONT
AS A WEDGE OF MAX HEATING WITH 83/66F AIR MASS NOSING INTO WRN MS
AHEAD OF TSRA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH LA. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT
CENTER SPINNING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL AR WILL HELP UVV AS A NARROW
CHANNEL OF 332C 850MB THETA E AIR NOW IN PLACE ALONG MS RIVER WITH 27
VTOTALS AND 7C 7-500MB LAPSE RATES. ALL THE INGREDIENTS COMBINING
WITH 800-1000J/KG MLCAPES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNSET IN WRN MS. SCATTERED STORMS IN NERN
LA BUILDING ALONG I-20 TOWARD THE MS RIVER CURRENTLY AS THESE SHOULD
REACH I-55 BY ABOUT 6-8PM.

THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAK VEERING WIND PROFILES AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR HOWEVER...THE NOSE OF A 700MB SPEED MAX OF
35-40KTS COMING OUT OF NRN TX SHOULD ASSIST STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SVR
STORM FOR AREAS W OF I-55. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 8-9PM OR SO W OF I-55.

A MORE STABLE AIRMASS GENERALLY E OF HIGHWAY 49 SHOULD ALLOW STORMS
TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OVER ERN MS. THEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS IT ACCELERATES SEWD THROUGH THE
CWFA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY CORRIDOR
ABOUT 3-6AM AND THEN I-59 LOCATIONS BY 8AM. CAA WILL INCREASE BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH NW WINDS 14-18KTS GUSTING 22-24KTS AT TIMES.
RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING DOWNGLIDE REGIME AND
THOSE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY BECOME NLY.

HAVE ADJUSTED MAV POPS FOR TONIGHT TOWARD THE MET GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
CONSIDERABLY WETTER IN MANY LOCATIONS...MOSTLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.
EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
1 INCH AMOUNTS EASILY POSSIBLE. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH
ADJUSTMENT TOWARD COOLER MET NUMBERS THURSDAY NIGHT./40/

PREVIOUSLY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY BRINGING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE ARKLAMISS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON FRIDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST
WEEK OR SO...BUT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A RETURN
OF AFTERNOON READINGS SOME 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER
SAT THROUGH MON.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUE AS OUR FIRST "REAL" COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
SHEAR PARAMETERS SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE
LIMITS INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S/MAYBE UPPER 60S?/BY MID
WEEK. FALL LIKE BREEZY CONDITIONS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL. INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT A FEW SPOTS MON NIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN INCREASED
HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TUE WHERE WE SHOULD WARM PRIOR TO FROPA.
LOWS BY NEXT THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DIPPING AGAIN INTO THE 30S
PER LATEST ECMWF BUT FOR NOW ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX MOS WERE MINOR IN
LIEU OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT./BK/40/

&&

.AVIATION...PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS IS NOW CONFINED TO FAR EAST MS
AND SHOULD LIFT IN A FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A FRONT COMING IN FROM THE
WEST IS DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MS RIVER
THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WHOLE AERODROME LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
MVFR FLIGHT CATS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS DUE TO
LINGERING SHOWERS AND/OR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND QUIET WEATHER TO RETURN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  77  51  80 /  60   9   0   0
MERIDIAN      57  77  48  81 /  59  24   0   0
VICKSBURG     57  79  51  81 /  57   5   0   0
HATTIESBURG   62  82  53  82 /  47  20   0   0
NATCHEZ       59  81  51  79 /  54   7   0   0
GREENVILLE    59  79  50  80 /  51   7   0   0
GREENWOOD     57  77  49  79 /  60  12   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
257 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063-132000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-
257 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND WEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY RISK FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE INITIAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOUISIANA WILL TRIGGER THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS BEFORE 9 PM AS IT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP
AND PUSHES ALL THE RAIN OFF TO EAST TOWARD MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 9 PM TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-072>074-132000-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
257 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY RISK. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

40

MSZ025-027-036-122155-
LEFLORE MS-HOLMES MS-CARROLL MS-
426 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
426 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIDON AT 426 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN HOLMES AND SOUTHEASTERN
LEFLORE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3348 9005 3327 9001 3323 9033 3331 9033
      3330 9036 3341 9038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 259DEG 22KT 3334 9025

JA

MSZ043-048-049-122225-
RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-HINDS MS-
458 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
458 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF ANNANDALE TO 6 MILES SOUTH
OF DRY GROVE AT 454 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

***A STRONG GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE MISSISSIPPI STATE FAIRGROUNDS OVER THE NEXT
20 MINUTES. PLEASE SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE NOW IF OUTSIDE
AT THE FAIR. WORST CONDITIONS WILL PASS BY 545PM WITH RAIN AND WIND
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.***

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN HINDS...CENTRAL MADISON AND WESTERN RANKIN COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3249 9032 3265 9030 3267 9023 3266 9020
      3269 9014 3270 9013 3270 9010 3277 9003
      3276 8982 3249 8985 3205 9004 3205 9050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 270DEG 23KT 3268 9020 3249 9020
          3237 9024 3221 9032 3204 9040

JA

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MSZ043-049-050-055-056-122310-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-SCOTT MS-RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-
540 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
540 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF PISGAH TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HARRISVILLE AT 539 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL MADISON...EASTERN RANKIN...SCOTT...NORTHERN
SIMPSON AND NORTHWESTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3223 8942 3188 8968 3186 9013 3189 9014
      3191 9017 3194 9017 3220 8998 3264 8989
      3265 8973 3258 8972 3257 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 267DEG 32KT 3255 8980 3221 8987
          3194 9007

JA

MSZ055-063-064-122350-
SIMPSON MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
617 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HEBRON AT 618 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CFREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3158 9004 3177 9007 3183 8966 3178 8965
      3177 8975 3161 8975 3161 8973 3160 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 263DEG 26KT 3169 8994

JA

MSZ050-051-055>057-065-066-130000-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-SCOTT MS-NEWTON MS-JONES MS-JASPER MS-
COVINGTON MS-
629 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
629 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF PINEVILLE TO 6 MILES WEST OF
MOUNT OLIVE AT 629 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

PEOPLE IN COVINGTON...WESTERN JASPER...NORTHWESTERN JONES...SOUTHERN
NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND SMITH COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3183 8924 3158 8943 3158 8971 3161 8975
      3177 8975 3178 8977 3195 8969 3234 8944
      3233 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 288DEG 27KT 3222 8937 3192 8956
          3176 8974

JA