Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HOT TEMPS
AND OPPRESSIVE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY. THE WX PATTERN IS BEING
DRIVEN BY A LARGE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS CENTERED OVER SW
MO. ALTHOUGH THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE WAS SUPPOSED TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY OUTSIDE THE FAR SOUTH...THERE HAS BEEN A SMATTERING
OF ISO SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CWA. I EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
HERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY 8 PM. TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W/NW/N
PORTIONS WHERE READINGS HAVE SO FAR PEAKED BETWEEN 98-101 DEGREES.
OTHER AREAS HAVE REACHED 95-97 DEGREES. ADDING TO THE HEAT IS THE
VERY HIGH HUMIDITY. SFC DEWPTS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ANYWHERE FROM 73 TO
77 DEGREES WHICH HAS RESULTED IN HI'S OF 108-115 DEGREES. DUE TO
THAT...EXPANDED THE EX HEAT WARN TO COVER MORE OF THE CWA. AS FOR
RECORDS...GWO TIED A RECORD WITH 99 AND GLH/TVR ARE VERY CLOSE AS
THEY EACH HAVE HIT 101 SO FAR. THERE STILL IS A FEW HRS OF HEATING
TO GO...SO THINGS MAY CHANGE.

LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO PEAK OVERNIGHT AND THEN LESSEN IN
INTENSITY THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS CLOSER
TO OUR REGION. HOWEVER...TYPICALLY WE SEE OUR HOTTEST TEMPS FOR A
COUPLE DAYS AFTER THE RIDGE PEAKS. THIS SPELLS HOTTER CONDITIONS FOR
TUE/WED WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA REACHING THE CENTURY MARK. SFC
MOISTURE AND RH WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THE RESULT WILL BE EXTREME
HI'S. IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE EX HEAT WARN WILL BE EXPANDED FOR ALL
AREAS AND EXTENDED INTO WED. DURING THIS TIME...SOME RECORDS WILL
FALL AND BELOW WILL BE A TABLE OF EACH SITES RECORDS AND FORECAST
VALUE UNTIL WED. AS FOR FORECAST VALUES...GUID WAS PRETTY CLOSE ON
HIGHS...BUT DID OPT TO RISE SOME AREAS BASED OFF PERSISTENCE AND
TRENDS. LOWS SEEMED A BIT TOO LOW BASED OFF TRENDS AND MADE LARGER
ADJ TO WARM LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS.

AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL...FURTHER WARMING/DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS
AND GREATER INFLUENCES FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT
CONVECTION. GUID POPS WERE ON THE LOW SIDE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FAR S PORTIONS WILL HAVE THE ONLY POTENTIAL AND
THAT IS BELOW AVG (10-20%). /CME/

&&

.CLIMATE...BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS AND FORECASTS FOR
TUE/WED.

     TUE - AUG 2                      WED - AUG 3
SITE   RECORD    FORECAST       SITE   RECORD    FORECAST
GLH   103 2008      101         GLH   103 1930      102
GWO    98 2008      100         GWO   100 1987      101
HBG    98 1998      100         HBG    99 1999      101
JAN   102 1947      100         JAN   103 1952      101
MEI   102 1999      100         MEI   100 1954      101
TVR   100 1952      101         TVR    99 1954      101

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AND LGT NRLY SFC WINDS ARE XPCTD THRU THE DAY
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE CONFINED
ALONG AND S OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTN. GUSTY SFC
WINDS/LLWS CAN BE XPCTD INVOF THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE HOT WEATHER
FLYING CONDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEK AS TEMPS REMAIN HOT AND
HUMIDITY STAYS HIGH. DENSITY ALTITUDE CHECKS PRIOR TO/DURING FLIGHT
ARE ADVISED. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76 100  76 101 /   5   4   3   5
MERIDIAN      74 100  74 101 /   5   3   3   3
VICKSBURG     74 101  74 101 /   5   5   3   5
HATTIESBURG   76 100  76 101 /  17  22   6  10
NATCHEZ       74  96  75  98 /   9  20   4   8
GREENVILLE    76 101  76 102 /   4   3   3   4
GREENWOOD     76 100  76 101 /   4   3   3   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ038-039-044>046-
     050>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>037-040>043-047>049.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ024-026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023-025.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>037-040>043-
047>049-021800-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT DUE TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ADDITIONAL
HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ038-039-044>046-050>066-072>074-021800-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1251 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE TO HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

BK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
919 PM GMT MON AUG 1 2011

MSZ072-012205-
MARION MS-
420 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...STRONG STORM MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE COLUMBIA AREA SHORTLY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO
50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA AT 419 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN MARION COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3112 8995 3113 9001 3113 9002 3117 9002
      3118 9003 3143 8979 3126 8966 3107 8967
      3107 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 038DEG 28KT 3127 8979

40

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