Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...SEEMS THAT THE 2.4 INCH AIRMASS EVIDENT ON THE 12Z JAN
RAOB DRIFTED A LITTLE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE
PASSED BY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS KEPT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
(AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING) FAR MORE CONCENTRATED IN
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS TODAY. MODELS GENERALLY GRASP
ANOTHER SUCH MID LEVEL WAVE DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE POSITION OF THIS WAVE RIGHT NOW SUGGESTS IT
COULD ENHANCE/DEVELOP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IN PRIMARILY MY NORTHWEST ZONES. ELSEWHERE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
WHAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL STILL BE
A POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

CONSIDERING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE MOIST AND WEAK FLOW REGIME OUR REGION IS IN MAKES ME THINK WE
CAN ANTICIPATE MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE CONVECTION DIMINISHING BY
LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE (PARTICULARLY
FOR AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS WEST OF I-55). THERE ARE SOME
SUGGESTIONS FROM MODELS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE 72
HOURS...AND THUS THE ATMOSPHERE MAYBE NOT QUITE AS PRONE TO LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HEAVY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR THAT REASON I ONLY
KEPT POPS IN THAT TIME PERIOD AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING
TO BE ROAMING ABOUT TOMORROW MORNING IS DEFINITELY NOT ZERO IN ANY
AREAS OF THE CWA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP 2 TO 2.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WITH CAPPING REMAINING WEAK.
ONLY VERY MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THIS REGIME HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND MOST AREAS FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW AGREE THAT A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED LARGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO
THE HEART OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL REALLY WORK TO WRING OUT
THE ALREADY EXCESSIVE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. POTENTIALLY FLOODING DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE EVEN MORE ABUNDANT
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND GOING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY
EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER
SHIFTS IF CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN COVERAGE OVER THIS PERIOD CAN
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. FORTUNATELY...THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH STILL DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO NON-IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES AND AN AIRMASS GENERALLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. A MINOR EXCEPTION MAY MATERIALIZE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE CAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG COULD BUILD WITH
THE MENTIONED INFLUENCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
BEFORE EVENING. BUT EVEN THEN THE HEAVY RAIN RISK STILL APPEARS TO
BE A BIGGER STORY THAN STORM STRENGTH.

FINALLY...MAV POPS AND TEMPS LOOKED VERY GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND WERE EXCEPTED. THERE IS DEFINITELY ROOM TO INCREASE POPS FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY CONSIDERING MENTIONED SETUP...BUT
PERSONAL UNCERTAINTY OF WHICH PERIODS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST
CONVECTION MAKES ME HOLD OFF ON ANY INCREASE FOR RIGHT NOW. HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE 90 TO 95 RANGE IN MOST AREAS IN THE SHORT
TERM...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LOCATIONS
TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 80S IF THEY ARE AFFECTED BY LOTS OF RAIN THAT
PARTICULAR DAY. AS SEEN TODAY...TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY PEAKING IN THE
LOW 90S IS ENOUGH TO DELIVER HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 DEGREES IN
THIS EXTRAORDINARILY MOIST AIRMASS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IS MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR NORTHERN AREAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011/

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAK MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA...YIELDING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME TSTORMS... THOUGH WITH GRADUALLY
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...POPS WILL BE LOWER THAN EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ANTICYCLONIC...SHUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF
THE GULF. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LESS WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION...
MORE TYPICAL OF WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE AT THE END OF JULY.

WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY BEING PREFERRED OVER THE GFS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO MEX TEMPS AND POPS. STAYED
CLOSE TO MEX AND ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BUT TRENDED ABOVE MEX HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. WENT ABOVE MEX
POPS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE GFS WAS SHOWING SOME
DRIER AIR ALOFT BUILDING SOUTHWARD AND LIMITING PRECIP. AND WITH
STRONG RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND...STAYED BELOW
MEX POP GUIDANCE. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS ABOVE
4K FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. TAF
SITES AFFECTED WILL SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION OF VIS/CEILINGS TO
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES IN THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
CLEAR LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  75  92 /  38  52  47  68
MERIDIAN      73  92  73  93 /  33  55  51  76
VICKSBURG     75  92  73  92 /  41  50  44  60
HATTIESBURG   74  92  75  93 /  41  67  31  64
NATCHEZ       73  89  72  91 /  44  64  29  54
GREENVILLE    74  94  75  94 /  25  33  56  39
GREENWOOD     74  94  74  95 /  25  34  56  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50/28/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
252015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
314 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS...OR OCCURS
REPEATEDLY...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO
PROVIDE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 106 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

MSZ030-031-033-241930-
OKTIBBEHA MS-LOWNDES MS-CLAY MS-
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF GRIFFITH AT 201 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN CLAY...WEST CENTRAL LOWNDES AND NORTHEASTERN
OKTIBBEHA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3345 8863 3356 8902 3372 8903 3370 8871
      3368 8871 3369 8865 3368 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 292DEG 19KT 3357 8881

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
242 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

MSZ035-036-242025-
HUMPHREYS MS-HOLMES MS-
242 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF BELZONI AT 242 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL HOLMES AND HUMPHREYS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3327 9046 3324 9042 3324 9037 3328 9037
      3331 9034 3328 9033 3318 9012 3301 9038
      3301 9044 3293 9045 3293 9066 3309 9066
      3313 9069 3312 9070 3320 9068 3323 9074
      3327 9073 3327 9056 3333 9056 3333 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 314DEG 12KT 3320 9044

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SEMINARY                31.56N 89.50W
07/24/2011  E3.99 INCH       COVINGTON          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED 3.75-3.99 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 1.5 HOURS

&&

JCULIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

MSZ062>064-072-242120-
MARION MS-LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
354 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS
LOCATED FROM OAK VALE TO RUTH AT 352 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. IF THE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE SAME LOCATION...AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHERN LAWRENCE...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3133 9005 3133 9008 3134 9011 3135 9044
      3147 9040 3155 8991 3130 8988 3129 9005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 288DEG 3KT 3144 8996 3138 9031

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
501 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

MSZ043-048-242245-
MADISON MS-HINDS MS-
501 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED FROM GLUCKSTADT TO 4 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON
AT 459 PM CDT...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BRING A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY MORE IF IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE MONITORED.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN HINDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3219 9036 3243 9042 3265 9003 3249 8999
      3248 9002 3244 9004 3243 9007 3239 9007
      3238 9010 3235 9011 3232 9016 3230 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 349DEG 6KT 3251 9010 3239 9031

CME