Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

...DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS OCCURRED MAINLY ACROSS
THE E/SE CWA AND WITH MORE BOUNDARIES MOVING AROUND...LOOK FOR
SIMILAR TYPE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS OF 40-60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A SVR STORM OR TWO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. FOR THE INITIAL PART OF THIS EVENING...HAVE TWEAKED
POPS UP FROM THE LATEST GUID...BASICALLY HAVE LEFT WHAT THE PREV
SHIFT HAD GOING. HOWEVER...THESE POPS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED OVER
BEFORE THE EVENING PERIOD AND ADJ BASED OFF TRENDS. AFTER THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES...THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM AND
ABV AVG. GUID VALUES LOOKED GOOD AND HAVE FOLLOWED AS THEY WERE
SIMILAR TO PREV MORNING LOWS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIP WILL SEE THE
COOLEST READINGS AND LIKELY REACH 73-74 DEGREES.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AND THESE LOWERING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE LOW LEVELS OF THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND OFFER HIGH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY. ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP
MORE PRECIP STARTING TUE AND ESPECIALLY FOR WED/THU THAN THEY HAVE
IN AT LEAST A WEEK. THIS IS A CONFIDENCE BUILDING SIGNAL AND HAVE
STUCK CLOSE OR RAISED GUID POPS FOR EACH AFTERNOON. THE ONLY BIG ADJ
WERE TO LOWER THE EVENING POPS DOWN TO 20-30%. GFS GUID SEEMED TO BE
WEIGHTING POPS TOO HEAVILY DURING THE EVENING PERIOD.
GENERALLY...ODDS ARE MUCH BETTER FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY
PERIODS THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONE THING THAT HAS NOT BEEN MENTIONED IS
THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP. IT HAS BEEN SO DRY HERE OF
LATE...IT SEEMS JUST ANY RAIN IS WELCOME. HOWEVER...STORMS THIS WEEK
LOOK TO HAVE SLOW MOVEMENTS AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT...ANY STORM COULD QUICKLY DUMP 2-3 INCHES. JUST SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND.

NOW FOR THE HEAT...IT APPEARS WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF BREAKING THIS
EXTREME HEAT. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH ONE
MORE DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT. TO START...HAVE LOOKED CLOSELY AT AREAS
THAT MAY SUPPORT EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA AND FOUND THAT THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE AREA EXCEEDED 110 DEGREE HEAT INDEX (HI) YESTERDAY FOR
ROUGHLY 4 HRS AND HAVE DONE SO FOR AT LEAST AS LONG TODAY.
ACTUALLY...THE LASTEST GTR OBS JUST CAME IN WITH A 117 HI! SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THAT AREA ON TUE AS THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION. WITH THAT...AND
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALL OTHER AREAS HAVE MET
HEAT ADV CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN AND BASED OFF FORECAST TEMP/RH COMBOS
FOR TUE...ALL AREAS WILL REACH THAT AGAIN. THE AREAS WITH MORE
QUESTION MARKS IS THE SE AREAS. HERE PRECIP SHOULD START
SOONER...BUT NOT BEFORE 1-3 HRS OF 105 HI OR GREATER OCCURS.

BEYOND TUE...THINGS WILL REMAIN HOT/HUMID...BUT WITH LOWER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LIKELY MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND...MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY
PEAK AT 92-96 DEGREES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HI'S ONLY REACHING
100-105 DEGREES. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  TAF SITES ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...KGTR/KMEI/KHBG...HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL OF SEEING
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS OBSERVED AT ANY SITE WILL
CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.  SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.  CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECT TO RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  97  76  96 /  19  36  29  49
MERIDIAN      73  97  73  95 /  21  37  30  47
VICKSBURG     74  97  74  96 /  12  31  27  43
HATTIESBURG   75  96  76  95 /  27  60  31  59
NATCHEZ       74  94  75  94 /  14  49  27  48
GREENVILLE    76 100  76  98 /   8  17  23  41
GREENWOOD     74  98  75  97 /  10  21  29  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ029>033.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/40/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
224 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

MSZ029>033-121930-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
224 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 110 AND
115 DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 75 DEGREES AT
MANY LOCATIONS OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MINIMIZE EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT DURING
THIS TIME. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOWNDES...
OKTIBBEHA...CLAY...CHOCTAW...AND WEBSTER COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES
PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 50
AND 60 MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>066-
072>074-121930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
224 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND
110 DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE 75 DEGREES AT
MANY LOCATIONS OFFERING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MINIMIZE EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT DURING
THIS TIME. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL 7 PM AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.  THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 50 AND 60 MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES
PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF
50 AND 60 MPH...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
503 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

MSZ072-112235-
MARION MS-
503 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED NEAR COLUMBIA AT 503 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MARION COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3100 8983 3101 8984 3107 8985 3107 8992
      3112 8994 3113 8999 3132 8996 3125 8967
      3100 8969 3099 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 021DEG 5KT 3119 8981

BK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
529 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

MSZ051-052-057-058-112300-
NEWTON MS-LAUDERDALE MS-JASPER MS-CLARKE MS-
529 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAVOY...AND 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HICKORY AT 529 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN CLARKE...NORTHEASTERN JASPER...SOUTHWESTERN
LAUDERDALE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3201 8877 3215 8916 3238 8901 3227 8867
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 032DEG 4KT 3222 8881

BK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
606 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

MSZ054-112335-
COPIAH MS-
606 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAZLEHURST AT 606 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL COPIAH COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3170 9063 3193 9070 3202 9043 3172 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 052DEG 5KT 3189 9045

BK

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