Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.UPDATE...LOTS OF CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE WITH THE MAIN
ELEMENTS BEING RAISING POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND LOWERING TEMPS FOR
TODAY. TO START...MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEFT OVER SHEAR AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA WITH 1 OR 2 MCV'S EMBEDDED IN THIS AXIS. THESE
FEATURES ARE PROVIDING LIFT WHICH IS LEADING TO THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CWA. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALREADY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS THE MAIN
PRECIP AREA THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN A ZONE FROM
COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO WINNSBORO. I HAVE INCREASED POPS WITHIN THAT
AREA...BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER IF THE UP SWING TREND
CONTINUES. AS FOR STRONG/SVR RISK...THIS RISK IS MUCH MORE LIMITED
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND LIKELY MORE CONFINED TO THE E-CENTRAL AND
SE. THE REASON FOR THAT IS THOSE AREAS WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
MORE HEATING WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY. PRODUCTS WILL BE
UPDATED TO FOCUS THAT RISK MORE ACROSS THE SE/E-CENTRAL AREAS RATHER
THAN THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE OTHER BIG CHANGE WAS TO TEMPS...DUE TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MORE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP...IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR AREA TO REACH THE LOWER
90S...MUCH LESS THE MID/UPPER 90S. BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE AREAS
WHERE THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER/PRECIP EXISTS AND HAVE HIGHS 88-90
DEGREES. LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THAT ZONE...COULD SEE ENOUGH SUN TO
SUPPORT LOWER 90S BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

THAT SHOULD COVER THE MAIN CHANGES FOR NOW...EXPECT MORE UPDATES
(LIKELY WITH PRECIP CHANCES) THIS MORNING AND DURING THE DAY. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AERODROME THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH SITES HBG/PIB IN SOUTHEASTERN MS ARE RELATIVELY
CLEAR. EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT AREAS OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEASTERN MS THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING OFF MAINLY
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN SOUTHEAST MS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MVFR TO
LOCALLY AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT
AND RATHER VARIABLE IN THE MIDST OF TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD. EXPECT A
FEW PATCHES OF MVFR FLIGHT CATS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR LIGHT FOG. TOMORROW SHOULD FEATURE ADDITIONAL DECENT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  71  95  72 /  41  24  27  24
MERIDIAN      89  69  95  70 /  49  26  26  20
VICKSBURG     89  71  94  70 /  57  37  25  24
HATTIESBURG   93  72  95  72 /  52  22  44  28
NATCHEZ       89  71  92  71 /  38  33  37  24
GREENVILLE    92  72  95  73 /  32  36  20  18
GREENWOOD     89  70  95  71 /  37  34  21  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
630 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061130-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
630 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...QUARTER SIZE OR LARGER HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

MSZ066-051820-
JONES MS-
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS BUILDING ACROSS THE COUNTY...

A CLUSTER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH WAS BUIDLING NORTHWEST OF
ELLISVILLE AT 1219 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS
AS THEY INCREASE ACROSS THE LAUREL AND ELLISVILLE AREAS THROUGH 1 PM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN JONES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3153 8939 3180 8939 3181 8903 3149 8897
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 286DEG 12KT 3167 8923

40

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