Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
PERIOD FOR NE/E MISSISSIPPI WITH DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS
FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT
ACROSS N MS AT THIS HOUR AS EXPECTED. SOME HAVE EXHIBITED STRONG TO
SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS WITH DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL LIKELY. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE TRACKING ESE AND WILL
AFFECT N/NE PORTIONS OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF A
FOUNTAIN HILL ARKANSAS TO LEXINGTON MISSISSIPPI TO DE KALB LINE. THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SMALL...YET POTENT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW. THIS WAVE IS COUPLED WITH SBCAPE VALUES
~3000-4000 AND LI/S -10 TO -13. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /<20
KT/ IS WEAK ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA AND ARE GREATER ALONG
THE MS/TN BORDER. THIS WILL INHIBIT EXPANSIVE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT
AND MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CONFINED ACROSS N/NE/E
MS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS BY
10 TO 11 PM EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND STABILIZES. SHOWER AND
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST A COUPLE HOURS PAST
SUNSET GIVEN CONVERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERPETUATING STORM
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTAINMENT.

GOING INTO SATURDAY...LOW TO MID-LVL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION BUT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER NW/N FLOW AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM MCS/PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. BOTH NAM AND AND GFS DEPICT ANOTHER
SMALL SHORTWAVE MUCH LIKE TODAY TO AFFECT NE/E MS AND W AL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. MUCAPE VALUES AGAIN LOOK TO BE HIGH
/3500-4500 J/KG/ AND LI/S OF -8 TO -9 ARE PROGGED.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZATIONAL/SUPPORTIVE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LACKING AGAIN
THAT MAY LIMIT COVERAGE FATHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THE STRONGER
RIDGING WILL BE MORE IN CONTROL. UPPED POPS FROM 12Z MAV TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS E/SE LOCATIONS OF MS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GOING INTO SUNDAY. FARTHER
WEST...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED...HIGH TEMPS WHERE RAISED
ONE TO TWO DEGREES.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...LOW TO MID-LVL RIDGING CONTINUES TO ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BUT FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY MID-LVL
FLOW. AGAIN BOTH NAM AND GFS PROG YET ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS E MS LOCATIONS SUNDAY THAT
COULD ACT TO ENHANCE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS AS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE.
THE DETAILS FOR BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED EACH
MORNING SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. POPS WERE ALSO UPPED ABOVE MAV
NUMBERS ACROSS THE EAST AND TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

FINALLY BY MONDAY...THE H5 HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AND N/NW FLOW IS
PUSHED FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. SEE UPDATED AVIATION
APPENDED BELOW./ALLEN/

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BRIEF COOLER WEATHER
EARLIER THIS WEEK CONTINUES FADING OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPSTREAM
HEAT RIDGE IN THE SRN PLAINS MAKES ANOTHER VISIT TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RICHER TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT COVERED
THE REGION GETS DEPRESSED INTO THE NRN GULF AND PWATS DECREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY/MONDAY. A DRYING TREND WITH RISING 500MB
HEIGHTS PUSHING 595DM ACROSS AR ON TUESDAY SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS SPRAWLS FROM THE TN VALLEY
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ESSENTIALLY LIMITING DIURNAL POPS TO THE SEA
BREEZE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DIGITAL MOS
GUIDANCE HAS TRENED MUCH DRIER THE PAST TWO DAYS AND MAX TEMPS HAVE
INCHED UPWARD. THE 850MB PROGS FOR TEMPS SHOWING PEAK OF 22-23C
EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WHICH TRANSLATES TO 97-100F
HIGHS ON THOSE DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS REMAIN ON THE MOIST SIDE WITH PERSISTENT
ANTICYCLONIC SLY FLOW MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MIX
OUT EACH AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE
HEADS FROM THE YUCATAN AREA INTO THE WRN GULF BRINGING A SURGE OF
2.5 INCH PWATS WITH IT. THE PRESENCE OF A HIGH LEVEL(200MB)
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN GULF ON TOP OF THE
WAVE COULD MAKE THINGS QUITE INTERESTING ABOUT THE FIRST OF JULY.
THE GFS HAS HAD SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE RUNS SHOWING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JULY SO WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY. AT THE
VERY LEAST...EXPECT THE DAILY SEA BREEZE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IMPACTING OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.

HAVE ADJUSTED GUIDANCE TOWARD WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH A BLEND
OF MEX AND MEN MINIMUMS./40/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP BUT MOSTLY IN NORTHERN MS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT KGTR THROUGH
22Z OR SO. WILL KEEP VCTS GOING IN THE TAF AND AMEND AS TSRA BECOMES
MORE APPARENT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ISOLATED SIDE. OTHERWISE SCT
CLOUDS ABOVE 4KFT WILL PREVAIL WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND. THERE
MAY BE SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOR KMEI AND KHBG.  /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  71  95 /   6   5   2   8
MERIDIAN      69  93  68  95 /  16  18  11  16
VICKSBURG     71  95  70  98 /   6   4   2   8
HATTIESBURG   71  95  73  95 /  16  18  16  16
NATCHEZ       71  93  71  98 /   5   9   4  15
GREENVILLE    74  93  72  97 /   6   8   1   7
GREENWOOD     72  93  71  96 /   7  14   2   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/28/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040-047>049-053>066-072>074-252000-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
246 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI... AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAT STRESS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-041>046-050>052-252000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
246 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS..

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTERACTS WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA WOULD BE NORTH OF A CROSSETT
ARKANSAS...TO KOSCIUSKO...TO DE KALB LINE THROUGH 9 PM.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO DE KALB.
THIS COMES AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE FROM WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAT STRESS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE
RANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
552 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

ARZ075-242320-
CHICOT AR-
552 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF DERMOTT AT 551 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM IS
LOCATED STILL IN DREW COUNTY BUT THE OUTER EFFECTS OF MAY STILL BE
FELT NEAR DERMOTT.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN CHICOT COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3356 9137 3356 9135 3342 9138 3344 9145
      3356 9145 3357 9144 3357 9138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 285DEG 10KT 3359 9146

JC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>