Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A NEARLY STACKED
LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR CWA A GOOD
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REGIONAL RADARS WERE SHOWING PLENTY OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. THE STACKED LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY TO NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA STATE
LINE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT DRIFTING OVER THE
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. EVENTHOUGH OUR CWA WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT TODAY...THE CONTINUING MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO FUEL NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. THE 00Z TUE JAN SOUNDING
SHOWED A PW OF 1.91IN. PWS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE ABOVE TWO
INCHES TODAY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE 00Z TUE GFS MOS WAS AMONG THE HIGHEST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM MOS. CUT
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WAS
CLOSE TO THE NAM MOS. THE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE OFFSET
BY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAINTAINING RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 28C. THE GREATEST
0-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30KTS AND GREATEST MLCAPES ABOVE 2000J/KG WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CONVECTION WILL SEE A DISTINCT
DIURNAL TREND WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATED OVER OUR CWA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE NEARLY STACKED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TRACKING MORE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND NUDGE THE COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO OUR CWA. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SPREADING BACK
INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL WEDNESDAY JUST NORTH OF OUR
CWA WHILE THE STACKED LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR
MOIST AIRMASS WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE WITH WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR CWA. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLOSE TO NORMAL AND
NEAR 90 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSER
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH
OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH
THIS LIKELY ENDS PCPN A LITTLE TOO FAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE STILL SHOWING MORE THAN ONE INCH TOTALS
OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH
LIGHTER QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE
THE CONTINUATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TO BRING SOME
NEEDED RAINFALL RELIEF FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND ITS AFFECT ON
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS. ALSO MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEPING AN
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING VERY FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

LATEST SATELLITE TPW DERIVED IMAGERY SHOWED THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PWATS OF 2+ INCHES) HAD MADE AN EARLY ARRIVAL INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.

LONGTERM MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE BRINGING ABOUT A SHORT TERM CHANGE
TO OUR WEATHER PATTERN. A STACK CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE CLOSED STACKED LOW IN
THE UPPER PORTION. THIS WILL BRING SOME HEIGHT FALLS TO THE REGION
AND GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2 INCHES PLUS...WHICH SPELLS LOCALLY
HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL BRING SOME SOME RELIEF TO OUR ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURE REGIME. THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING WILL
OCCUR WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE STACKED CLOSED LOW. ON
THURSDAY-FRIDAY A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH THE REGION AND THEN GET PUSHED BACK TO THE
NORTH. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SEND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WHICH MAY
COMBINE WITH OTHER STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATE AND THERMODYNAMICS FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE AID OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AS WE GO
TOWARD THE WEEKEND THE HIGH PWATS GET USHERED SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH PRECIP WATER AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. THE CLOSED STACK LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL PUSH THE TROUGH AXIS
EAST OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE MODIFIED OUR PATTERN
FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY KEEP THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS
WEST IN THE PLAINS WHILE PUTTING THE REGION INTO AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH COOLER AIR
ALOFT PROVIDING LAPSE RATES...DECENT VT AND DCAPE WILL PROVIDE THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE PERIOD.  ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO BRINGING SOME RAIN
RELIEF TO THE REGION. AVERAGE MODEL QPF RANGES FROM ONE TO TWO
INCHES...WHILE THE 5 DAY QPF RANGES FROM NEAR 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SO
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS FOR THURSDAY IN THE HWO WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
OF TWO INCHES.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN MADE A BLEND OF MEX...GMOS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES AT
09Z BUT A LAYER OF STRATUS BELOW 2000FT WAS NOTED DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND A MORE WIDESPREAD LAYER WAS NOTED BELOW
2KFT JUST WEST OF OUR AREA IN LOUISIANA. THESE AREAS MAY MERGE THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING 12Z-16Z BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT
ABOVE 3KFT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
GLH AND GWO TODAY. MOST STORMS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY 05Z WEDNESDAY
BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY MOVE BACK INTO VCTY OF GLH BY 12Z WED.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  73  90  72 /  61  39  66  35
MERIDIAN      93  73  92  71 /  40  38  65  38
VICKSBURG     90  74  92  71 /  64  43  74  28
HATTIESBURG   94  74  91  73 /  40  17  74  40
NATCHEZ       89  74  91  72 /  60  25  72  30
GREENVILLE    88  74  92  72 /  78  61  50  15
GREENWOOD     89  74  92  71 /  66  64  62  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/17/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>030-032>037-
040>044-047>049-053-059-060-221030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BASTROP
TO GRENADA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVE BACK INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS IN THE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

MSZ031-038-039-045-046-050>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-221030-
LOWNDES-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
520 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS MAINLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTH IN A RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF UP TO 2 INCHES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM ANY STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
751 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

LAZ015-211335-
RICHLAND LA-
751 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF START AT 751
AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN RICHLAND PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3232 9202 3239 9200 3254 9190 3255 9188
      3253 9185 3257 9181 3256 9175 3262 9170
      3262 9168 3229 9199 3227 9201 3228 9204
TIME...MOT...LOC 1251Z 215DEG 24KT 3239 9204

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
856 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

ARZ075-MSZ018-034-211440-
CHICOT AR-BOLIVAR MS-WASHINGTON MS-
856 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER MCMILLAN CORNER AT 857 AM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN BOLIVAR AND NORTHERN
CHICOT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3375 9104 3356 9085 3325 9132 3338 9145
      3339 9146 3353 9130 3352 9125 3359 9122
      3359 9117 3365 9117 3368 9113 3367 9107
      3368 9104 3371 9104 3372 9108
TIME...MOT...LOC 1357Z 228DEG 23KT 3339 9131

BYB